UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026·Houston, Texas, USA
Model Record: 10/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✗
Sean Strickland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Strickland 33%67% Hernandez
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.4(favors Hernandez)
Welterweight✓
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Medic 57%43% Neal
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Brawler — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Neal)
Featherweight✓
Melquizael Costa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Costa 65%35% Ige
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Brawler — Wrestler wins 57% historically
→Elo gap: +182(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Costa)
Heavyweight✓
Serghei Spivac won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Spivac 58%42% Delija
LEAN
→Elo gap: +137(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Delija)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Spivac)
Welterweight✓
Jacobe Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 69%31% Harrell
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +213(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Smith)
Middleweight✗
Michel Pereira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pereira 38%62% Reese
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Reese)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Reese)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Reese)
Welterweight✗
Carlos Leal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leal 39%61% Njokuani
LEAN
→Elo gap: -119(favors Njokuani)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Leal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Leal)
Flyweight✓
Alibi Idiris won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Idiris 52%48% Osbourne
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -83(favors Osbourne)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Idiris)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Osbourne)
Flyweight✓
Alden Coria won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Coria 76%24% Gurule
STRONG
→Elo gap: +384(favors Coria)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Coria)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Coria)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Joselyne Edwards won by Submission (R2)
Edwards 67%33% Cornolle
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +175(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Edwards)
Welterweight✓
Punahele Soriano won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Soriano 54%46% Brahimaj
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -52(favors Brahimaj)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Soriano)
Welterweight✗
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lebosnoyani 41%59% Rowe
LEAN
→Elo gap: -134(favors Rowe)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Rowe)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Rowe)
Featherweight✓
Jordan Leavitt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leavitt 58%42% Valle
LEAN
→Elo gap: -92(favors Valle)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Leavitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Leavitt)
Women's Flyweight✓
Carli Judice won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Judice 65%35% Miller
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +186(favors Judice)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.7(favors Judice)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Miller)