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UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Apr 11, 2026 · Miami, Florida, USA · 10 fights
Main Card Predictions
Light Heavyweight
Prochazka 47%53% Ulberg
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Prochazka)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Prochazka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Prochazka)
Heavyweight
Blaydes 51%49% Hokit
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +447(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Hokit)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Hokit)
Light Heavyweight
Reyes 57%43% Walker
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 52% (+4.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Walker)
Light Heavyweight
Murzakanov 73%27% Costa
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+7.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +93(favors Murzakanov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Costa)
Featherweight
Freire 29%71% Pico
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +243(favors Freire)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Pico)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.0(favors Pico)
Featherweight
Swanson 38%62% Landwehr
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 44% (-5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +301(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Swanson)
Model vs Market
Where our model disagrees most with the betting lines
Last Event Scorecard
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Apr 4, 2026
7/13correct(54%)
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Full results →Pound-for-Pound Rankings
1
Full rankings by division →Jon Jones
Heavyweight22132Francis Ngannou
Heavyweight21933Ilia Topuria
Lightweight21804Islam Makhachev
Welterweight21805Khamzat Chimaev
Middleweight21076Khabib Nurmagomedov
Lightweight20887Alex Pereira
Light Heavyweight20838Tom Aspinall
Heavyweight20449Georges St-Pierre
Middleweight201010Nassourdine Imavov
Middleweight2007Model Track Record
65.2%
Overall accuracy
81.3%
High-confidence picks
Tested on 1,605 fights (2023-2026). LightGBM + CatBoost ensemble with Elo, style matchups, and 23+ features.
Full methodology →