UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 421 points above Grasso's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shevchenko at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 37% implied while our model sees 48% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Maddalena is rated at 1877 — 620 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Maddalena's knockout artist game against Holland's all-rounder approach. Maddalena is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Maddalena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Jack Della Maddalena. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holland at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 50% for Maddalena, but our model sees only 47%. That 3-point gap favoring Holland is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raul Rosas Jr. (4-1) taking on Terrence Mitchell (0-1). Mitchell will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. is rated at 1251 — 426 points above Mitchell's 825. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jr. rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitchell throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. over Terrence Mitchell. We're leaning Jr. here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Daniel Zellhuber (3-2) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7). Zellhuber is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Zellhuber at 1082 versus Giagos at 940. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Zellhuber is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Giagos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zellhuber throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Zellhuber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Zellhuber over Christos Giagos. The model is firm on this one: Zellhuber at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Zellhuber at 69% implied while our model sees 78% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Kyle Nelson (4-5-1) taking on Fernando Padilla (2-1). Padilla is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 188 points above Padilla's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Padilla throws significantly more leather — a 8.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fernando Padilla over Kyle Nelson. The model is firm on this one: Padilla at 78%. The market implies 31% for Nelson, but our model sees only 22%. That 9-point gap favoring Padilla is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Elise Reed (4-4).

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 328 points above Reed's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Godinez's all-rounder game against Reed's striker approach. Godinez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Reed brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Elise Reed. We're leaning Godinez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-4) taking on Josh Fremd (2-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Fremd.

Kopylov is rated at 1277 — 383 points above Fremd's 894. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kopylov's striker game against Fremd's wrestler approach. Kopylov brings a versatile approach, while Fremd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kopylov throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fremd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Kopylov over Josh Fremd. The model is firm on this one: Kopylov at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Kopylov at 76% implied while our model sees 81% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Edgar Chairez (1-2) taking on Daniel Lacerda (0-4).

Chairez is rated at 1011 — 392 points above Lacerda's 619. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lacerda throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Lacerda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edgar Chairez over Daniel Lacerda. We're leaning Chairez here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Chairez at 66% implied while our model sees 74% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Tracy Cortez (6-1) taking on Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2). Jasudavicius is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jasudavicius carries a modest Elo edge (1358 to 1318), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Jasudavicius has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Cortez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jasudavicius looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jasudavicius the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cortez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cortez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cortez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tracy Cortez over Jasmine Jasudavicius. The model gives Cortez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cortez at 52% implied while our model sees 64% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Charlie Campbell (2-0) taking on Alex Reyes (0-2).

Campbell is rated at 1061 — 262 points above Reyes's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Campbell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charlie Campbell over Alex Reyes. The model is firm on this one: Campbell at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Campbell at 81% implied while our model sees 89% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Josefine Knutsson (2-0) taking on Marnic Mann (0-1). Mann will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Knutsson is rated at 1038 — 207 points above Mann's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mann throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josefine Knutsson over Marnic Mann. The model is firm on this one: Knutsson at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Knutsson at 84% implied while our model sees 88% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.