UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1). Holm is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Holm at 1127 versus Silva at 1016. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Holm's striker game against Silva's wrestler approach. Holm brings a versatile approach, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Holm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva. The model gives Holm a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Holm, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Bassil Hafez (1-1).

Maddalena is rated at 1877 — 912 points above Hafez's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 9.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hafez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hafez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez. The model is firm on this one: Maddalena at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Maddalena at 84% implied while our model sees 88% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Prado (1-3) taking on Ottman Azaitar (2-2).

Prado carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 852), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Azaitar throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Azaitar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Azaitar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prado at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on Albert Duraev (2-1).

Park is rated at 1235 — 236 points above Duraev's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Duraev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Duraev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Albert Duraev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Park at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Chelsea Chandler (2-2).

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 633 points above Chandler's 913. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chandler throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norma Dumont over Chelsea Chandler. The model gives Dumont a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Nazim Sadykhov (4-0-1) taking on Terrance McKinney (7-4). McKinney will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sadykhov is rated at 1278 — 169 points above McKinney's 1110. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sadykhov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving McKinney the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadykhov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Sadykhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nazim Sadykhov over Terrance McKinney. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sadykhov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Sadykhov, but our model sees only 54%. That 5-point gap favoring McKinney is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Melsik Baghdasaryan (3-1) taking on Tucker Lutz (1-2).

Baghdasaryan is rated at 1056 — 204 points above Lutz's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baghdasaryan throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lutz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Baghdasaryan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melsik Baghdasaryan over Tucker Lutz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Baghdasaryan at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Viktoriia Dudakova (2-1) taking on Istela Nunes (0-4).

Dudakova is rated at 848 — 157 points above Nunes's 691. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dudakova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viktoriia Dudakova over Istela Nunes. The model gives Dudakova a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (6-2) taking on Austin Lingo (2-2).

Costa is rated at 1550 — 645 points above Lingo's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lingo throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lingo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lingo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Austin Lingo. We're leaning Costa here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Costa at 67% implied while our model sees 71% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Elder (2-2) taking on Genaro Valdez (0-2).

Elder is rated at 1085 — 370 points above Valdez's 714. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elder throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Elder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Valdez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Elder over Genaro Valdez. We're leaning Elder here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Azat Maksum (1-2) taking on Tyson Nam (3-4).

Nam is rated at 988 — 153 points above Maksum's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nam throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maksum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Azat Maksum over Tyson Nam. The model is firm on this one: Maksum at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Maksum at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Munoz (0-2) taking on Carl Deaton (0-1). Munoz is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Munoz at 1001 versus Deaton at 858. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Deaton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carl Deaton over Alexander Munoz. The model gives Deaton a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ailin Perez (4-1) taking on Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Evans-Smith.

Perez is rated at 1291 — 533 points above Evans-Smith's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Perez rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Perez's wrestler game against Evans-Smith's striker approach. Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Evans-Smith brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans-Smith throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Evans-Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ailin Perez over Ashlee Evans-Smith. The model is firm on this one: Perez at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 69% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.