UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Abus Magomedov (4-2).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 534 points above Magomedov's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedov has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 15.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abus Magomedov over Sean Strickland. The model gives Magomedov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Damir Ismagulov (5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dawson at 1336 versus Ismagulov at 1202. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dawson's wrestler game against Ismagulov's striker approach. Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ismagulov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ismagulov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Ismagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Damir Ismagulov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dawson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dawson at 46% implied while our model sees 54% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Morales (6-0) taking on Max Griffin (8-9). Morales will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Morales is rated at 1853 — 702 points above Griffin's 1152. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Morales rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Morales over Max Griffin. We're leaning Morales here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Morales at 70% implied while our model sees 74% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ariane da Silva (6-7) taking on Melissa Gatto (2-2).

Gatto is rated at 1148 — 171 points above Silva's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gatto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gatto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ariane da Silva over Melissa Gatto. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Ismael Bonfim (2-2). Denis is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Denis is rated at 1743 — 754 points above Bonfim's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ismael Bonfim over Benoit Saint Denis. The model gives Bonfim a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nursulton Ruziboev (3-1) taking on Brunno Ferreira (5-2). Ruziboev is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ruziboev at 1327, Ferreira at 1344. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ruziboev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brunno Ferreira over Nursulton Ruziboev. We're leaning Ferreira here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Ruziboev, but our model sees only 29%. That 4-point gap favoring Ferreira is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Rinat Fakhretdinov (5-0-1) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7). Lee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fakhretdinov is rated at 1483 — 286 points above Lee's 1197. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fakhretdinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Fakhretdinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov over Kevin Lee. The model is firm on this one: Fakhretdinov at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Fakhretdinov at 65% implied while our model sees 78% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Joanderson Brito (5-3) taking on Westin Wilson (1-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Wilson.

Brito is rated at 1283 — 463 points above Wilson's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brito throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brito is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Wilson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanderson Brito over Westin Wilson. The model is firm on this one: Brito at 86%. The market implies 90% for Brito, but our model sees only 86%. That 4-point gap favoring Wilson is worth watching.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Yana Santos (6-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1304 versus Rosa at 1201. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karol Rosa over Yana Santos. We're leaning Rosa here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rosa at 63% implied while our model sees 68% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Elves Brener (3-2) taking on Guram Kutateladze (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Brener at 1033 versus Kutateladze at 952. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brener throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kutateladze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kutateladze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elves Brener over Guram Kutateladze. We're leaning Brener here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Carolina (6-3) taking on Ivana Petrovic (1-2).

Carolina is rated at 1036 — 248 points above Petrovic's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Carolina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Petrovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Carolina over Ivana Petrovic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carolina at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Carolina at 37% implied while our model sees 51% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (6-3) taking on Blagoy Ivanov (3-4). Romanov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Romanov is rated at 1307 — 159 points above Ivanov's 1148. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ivanov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Romanov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ivanov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Ivanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Blagoy Ivanov. The model gives Romanov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.