UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Saturday, June 10, 2023·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Nunes 73%27% Aldana
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+0.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +162(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Nunes)
LightweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oliveira 54%46% Dariush
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+11.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +69(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Dariush)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Malott won by Submission (R2)
Malott 71%29% Fugitt
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +124(favors Malott)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Fugitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Fugitt)
FeatherweightHIT
Dan Ige won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ige 76%24% Landwehr
STRONGMarket: 70% (+6.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +205(favors Ige)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Landwehr)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Landwehr)
MiddleweightHIT
Marc-Andre Barriault won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barriault 53%47% Anders
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-5.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Anders)
Middleweight
Imavov 81%19% Curtis
STRONGMarket: 62% (+18.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +618(favors Imavov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Imavov)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Jasmine Jasudavicius won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jasudavicius 33%67% Maverick
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+3.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Maverick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Maverick)
BantamweightHIT
Aiemann Zahabi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Zahabi 51%49% Aoriqileng
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Zahabi)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Aoriqileng)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Aoriqileng)
FeatherweightMISS
Kyle Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nelson 23%77% Bilder
STRONGMarket: 30% (-7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -180(favors Bilder)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Bilder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Nelson)
FlyweightMISS
Steve Erceg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Erceg 21%79% Dvorak
STRONGMarket: 29% (-7.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Dvorak)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Dvorak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Dvorak)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Diana Belbita won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Belbita 42%58% Oliveira
LEANMarket: 55% (-13.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -120(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Belbita)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Oliveira)