UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

Dern is rated at 1472 — 398 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dern's wrestler game against Hill's striker approach. Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Angela Hill. The model gives Dern a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5).

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 288 points above Shahbazyan's 1314. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hernandez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hernandez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.2 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Edmen Shahbazyan. We're leaning Hernandez here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Emily Ducote (2-2).

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 308 points above Ducote's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ducote throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Emily Ducote. The model gives Godinez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Andre Fialho (2-4).

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 863 points above Fialho's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Andre Fialho. We're leaning Buckley here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15).

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1245 to 1213), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1) taking on Maheshate (2-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Borshchev at 812, Maheshate at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Borshchev's all-rounder game against Maheshate's striker approach. Borshchev is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Maheshate brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borshchev throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maheshate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maheshate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maheshate over Viacheslav Borshchev. The model gives Maheshate a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4). Kowalkiewicz will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kowalkiewicz at 871, Demopoulos at 883. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Demopoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vanessa Demopoulos over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Demopoulos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Kowalkiewicz, but our model sees only 47%. That 8-point gap favoring Demopoulos is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Urbina (1-2) taking on Orion Cosce (1-1). Urbina is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Urbina at 830, Cosce at 800. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Urbina throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Urbina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Urbina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Urbina over Orion Cosce. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Urbina at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2) taking on Ilir Latifi (9-6). Nascimento is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Latifi at 1195 versus Nascimento at 1092. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Latifi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Latifi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Latifi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento over Ilir Latifi. We're leaning Nascimento here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Nick Fiore (0-1). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hooper is rated at 1175 — 341 points above Fiore's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Fiore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Nick Fiore. The model gives Hooper a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hooper at 45% implied while our model sees 59% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (7-0) taking on Victoria Leonardo (1-3).

Silva is rated at 1618 — 837 points above Leonardo's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Natalia Silva over Victoria Leonardo. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 78%.

The Welterweight matchup features Themba Gorimbo (4-2) taking on Takashi Sato (2-4). Gorimbo is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gorimbo is rated at 1085 — 230 points above Sato's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gorimbo's wrestler game against Sato's striker approach. Gorimbo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sato brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sato throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorimbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Gorimbo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over Takashi Sato. The model gives Gorimbo a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Gorimbo at 54% implied while our model sees 63% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.