UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Saturday, May 13, 2023·Charlotte, North Carolina, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Jailton Almeida won by Submission (R1)
Almeida 58%42% Rozenstruik
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Rozenstruik)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.8(favors Almeida)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Johnny Walker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Walker 72%28% Smith
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+18.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -35(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smith)
WelterweightHIT
Ian Machado Garry won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garry 66%34% Rodriguez
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-6.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Garry)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ulberg 84%16% Potieria
STRONGMarket: 80% (+4.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Ulberg)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Ulberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Ulberg)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Morono won by Submission (R2)
Morono 65%35% Means
LEANMarket: 66% (-1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Means)
WelterweightMISS
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brown 23%77% McGee
STRONGMarket: 33% (-9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Brown)
HeavyweightHIT
Karl Williams won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Williams 89%11% Sherman
STRONGMarket: 77% (+11.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +212(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.7(favors Williams)
Catch WeightMISS
Douglas Silva de Andrade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Andrade 45%55% Stamann
LEANMarket: 41% (+3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Stamann)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Stamann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Stamann)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Mandy Bohm won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bohm 37%63% Kim
LEANMarket: 31% (+6.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -16(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Kim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kim)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Battle won by KO/TKO (R1)
Battle 59%41% Green
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Green)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Tainara Lisboa won by Submission (R3)
Lisboa 60%40% Clark
LEANMarket: 51% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +180(favors Lisboa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Clark)