UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Saturday, March 11, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 3/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Dvalishvili 39%61% Yan
LEANMarket: 31% (+7.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Dvalishvili)
HeavyweightMISS
Alexander Volkov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Volkov 47%53% Romanov
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +319(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Romanov)
Catch WeightHIT
Nikita Krylov won by Submission (R1)
Krylov 72%28% Spann
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+11.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +7(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Krylov)
BantamweightMISS
Jonathan Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martinez 29%71% Nurmagomedov
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-2.9% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Martinez)
BantamweightHIT
Mario Bautista won by Submission (R1)
Bautista 88%12% Cannetti
STRONGMarket: 89% (-0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +214(favors Bautista)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Cannetti)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Bautista)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Vitor Petrino won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Petrino 49%51% Turkalj
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +46(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Turkalj)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Turkalj)
HeavyweightMISS
Karl Williams won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Williams 42%58% Brzeski
LEANMarket: 63% (-21.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +51(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.9(favors Brzeski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Brzeski)
BantamweightMISS
Davey Grant won by Submission (R3)
Grant 50%50% Assuncao
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-6.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Assuncao)
MiddleweightMISS
Josh Fremd won by Submission (R2)
Fremd 26%74% Dumas
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-7.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -202(favors Dumas)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Fremd)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Fremd)
BantamweightMISS
Victor Henry won by Decision - Split (R3)
Henry 44%56% Gravely
LEANMarket: 57% (-13.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Gravely)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Henry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.0(favors Gravely)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Ariane da Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 34%66% Aldrich
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -216(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Aldrich)
FlyweightMISS
Bruno Silva won by Submission (R2)
Silva 47%53% Nam
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Nam)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Nam)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Silva)
WelterweightHIT
Carlston Harris won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Harris 69%31% Gooden
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-6.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +148(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Gooden)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Gooden)