UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Ciryl Gane (10-2). Jones will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 277 points above Gane's 1884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Jon Jones. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gane at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Jones, but our model sees only 48%. That 12-point gap favoring Gane is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 421 points above Grasso's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso. The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 12% implied while our model sees 25% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0) taking on Geoff Neal (8-5). Rakhmonov is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rakhmonov is rated at 1831 — 584 points above Neal's 1247. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rakhmonov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Rakhmonov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rakhmonov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakhmonov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov over Geoff Neal. The model is firm on this one: Rakhmonov at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Jalin Turner (7-6). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 179 points above Turner's 1393. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Turner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Gamrot the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Jalin Turner. The model gives Gamrot a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Bo Nickal (4-1) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-6). Pickett will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nickal is rated at 1320 — 647 points above Pickett's 673. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nickal's wrestler game against Pickett's striker approach. Nickal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pickett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Nickal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bo Nickal over Jamie Pickett. The model is firm on this one: Nickal at 88%. The market implies 92% for Nickal, but our model sees only 88%. That 4-point gap favoring Pickett is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Trevin Jones (1-3). Jones will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garbrandt is rated at 1155 — 296 points above Jones's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garbrandt throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Garbrandt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Trevin Jones. The model gives Garbrandt a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Garbrandt, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Jones is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Derek Brunson (14-6).

Plessis is rated at 1860 — 458 points above Brunson's 1402. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Plessis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brunson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Derek Brunson. The model is firm on this one: Plessis at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Plessis at 67% implied while our model sees 76% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-5) taking on Viviane Araujo (7-5).

Araujo is rated at 1207 — 160 points above Ribas's 1048. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ribas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Araujo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ribas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Araujo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Viviane Araujo. We're leaning Ribas here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ribas at 52% implied while our model sees 67% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9) taking on Julian Marquez (3-4).

Barriault is rated at 954 — 294 points above Marquez's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Marquez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Marquez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Julian Marquez. The model gives Barriault a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Song Kenan (6-4). Garry is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Garry is rated at 1787 — 781 points above Kenan's 1007. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garry's all-rounder game against Kenan's striker approach. Garry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kenan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garry throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Garry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Kenan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Song Kenan. The model is firm on this one: Garry at 79%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cameron Saaiman (3-2) taking on Mana Martinez (2-1). Martinez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 957 versus Saaiman at 869. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Saaiman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Saaiman over Mana Martinez. The model is firm on this one: Saaiman at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Saaiman at 71% implied while our model sees 79% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (6-3) taking on Jessica Penne (3-5). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ricci is rated at 1355 — 552 points above Penne's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penne throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Jessica Penne. We're leaning Ricci here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Farid Basharat (5-0) taking on Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1).

Basharat is rated at 1459 — 243 points above Blackshear's 1216. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Basharat rides a 5-fight win streak into this one, while Blackshear has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackshear throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Farid Basharat. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blackshear at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Loik Radzhabov (2-1) taking on Esteban Ribovics (3-2).

Ribovics is rated at 1278 — 269 points above Radzhabov's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribovics throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribovics is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ribovics has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics. The model gives Radzhabov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Radzhabov, but our model sees only 58%. That 9-point gap favoring Ribovics is worth watching.