UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Erin Blanchfield (7-1) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Blanchfield is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Blanchfield is rated at 1631 — 515 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanchfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Blanchfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Erin Blanchfield. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Andrade at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Zac Pauga (1-2) taking on Jordan Wright (2-4).

Pauga carries a modest Elo edge (762 to 693), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pauga throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wright is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Pauga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zac Pauga over Jordan Wright. We're leaning Pauga here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Pauga, but our model sees only 68%. That 4-point gap favoring Wright is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jamal Pogues (2-1) taking on Josh Parisian (2-4).

Pogues is rated at 983 — 212 points above Parisian's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisian throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Pogues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamal Pogues over Josh Parisian. We're leaning Pogues here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Prachnio (4-6) taking on William Knight (3-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Prachnio.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Prachnio at 818, Knight at 838. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Prachnio's striker game against Knight's all-rounder approach. Prachnio brings a versatile approach, while Knight is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prachnio throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: William Knight over Marcin Prachnio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Knight at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Prachnio at 45% implied while our model sees 49% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 255 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's all-rounder game against Miller's knockout artist approach. Hernandez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Jim Miller. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Hernandez, but our model sees only 63%. That 3-point gap favoring Miller is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Nazim Sadykhov (4-0-1) taking on Evan Elder (2-2). Elder will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sadykhov is rated at 1278 — 194 points above Elder's 1085. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elder throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Elder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sadykhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nazim Sadykhov over Evan Elder. We're leaning Sadykhov here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1016 versus Lansberg at 871. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Silva's wrestler game against Lansberg's striker approach. Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lansberg brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lansberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva over Lina Lansberg. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 81% implied while our model sees 85% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jamall Emmers (4-4) taking on Khusein Askhabov (0-0). Emmers is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Emmers is rated at 1177 — 273 points above Askhabov's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmers throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Askhabov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khusein Askhabov over Jamall Emmers. The model gives Askhabov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Philipe Lins (3-2) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12).

Lins is rated at 1256 — 339 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lins rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Lins's striker game against Preux's all-rounder approach. Lins brings a versatile approach, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lins throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Philipe Lins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Preux at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features AJ Fletcher (1-2) taking on Themba Gorimbo (4-2). Gorimbo is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gorimbo at 1085 versus Fletcher at 967. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fletcher throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Gorimbo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over AJ Fletcher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gorimbo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Clayton Carpenter (2-1) taking on Juancamilo Ronderos (0-1). Carpenter is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Carpenter at 991 versus Ronderos at 845. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ronderos throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ronderos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carpenter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clayton Carpenter over Juancamilo Ronderos. The model is firm on this one: Carpenter at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Carpenter at 76% implied while our model sees 85% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.