UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Saturday, December 3, 2022·Orlando, Florida, USA
Model Record: 8/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Stephen Thompson won by KO/TKO (R4)
Thompson 26%74% Holland
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (-11.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Holland)
WelterweightHIT
Rafael Dos Anjos won by Submission (R2)
Anjos 53%47% Barberena
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Anjos)
FlyweightHIT
Matheus Nicolau won by KO/TKO (R2)
Nicolau 85%15% Schnell
STRONGMarket: 77% (+7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Nicolau)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Nicolau)
HeavyweightHIT
Sergei Pavlovich won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pavlovich 77%23% Tuivasa
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Pavlovich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tuivasa)
MiddleweightMISS
Roman Dolidze won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dolidze 44%56% Hermansson
LEANMarket: 34% (+10.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -163(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Dolidze)
MiddleweightMISS
Eryk Anders won by KO/TKO (R2)
Anders 33%67% Daukaus
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+1.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +35(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Daukaus)
WelterweightHIT
Phil Rowe won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rowe 64%36% Price
LEANMarket: 51% (+13.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Price)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Rowe)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Angela Hill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hill 39%61% Ducote
LEANMarket: 42% (-3.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +5(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Ducote)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Hill)
LightweightMISS
Clay Guida won by Decision - Split (R3)
Guida 33%67% Holtzman
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Guida)
LightweightMISS
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 24%76% Diakiese
STRONGMarket: 24% (+0.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Diakiese)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.3(favors Diakiese)
FeatherweightHIT
Jonathan Pearce won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pearce 89%11% Elkins
STRONGMarket: 82% (+7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Pearce)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Pearce)
LightweightHIT
Natan Levy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Levy 78%22% Valdez
STRONG
→Elo gap: +136(favors Levy)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Levy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Levy)
FeatherweightHIT
Francis Marshall won by KO/TKO (R2)
Marshall 63%37% Rojo
LEANMarket: 62% (+1.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +136(favors Marshall)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Rojo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Rojo)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Yazmin Jauregui won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jauregui 79%21% Nunes
STRONGMarket: 74% (+4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +297(favors Jauregui)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Jauregui)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nunes)