UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Saturday, November 12, 2022·New York City, New York, USA
Model Record: 4/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightMISS
Alex Pereira won by KO/TKO (R5)
Pereira 21%79% Adesanya
STRONGMarket: 21% (+0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -524(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Adesanya)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Zhang Weili won by Submission (R2)
Weili 42%58% Esparza
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Weili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Esparza)
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by Submission (R3)
Poirier 73%27% Chandler
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+4.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +337(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Chandler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Chandler)
BantamweightHIT
Chris Gutierrez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gutierrez 79%21% Edgar
STRONGMarket: 68% (+10.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Gutierrez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Edgar)
LightweightMISS
Dan Hooker won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hooker 42%58% Puelles
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -88(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Puelles)
LightweightMISS
Renato Moicano won by Submission (R1)
Moicano 48%52% Riddell
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Moicano)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Riddell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Moicano)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ryan Spann won by KO/TKO (R1)
Spann 34%66% Reyes
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-0.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Spann)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Erin Blanchfield won by Submission (R1)
Blanchfield 91%9% McCann
STRONGMarket: 78% (+12.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Blanchfield)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Blanchfield)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Blanchfield)
MiddleweightMISS
Andre Petroski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Petroski 50%50% Turman
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-13.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +210(favors Petroski)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Petroski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Petroski)
LightweightMISS
Matt Frevola won by KO/TKO (R1)
Frevola 47%53% Azaitar
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+8.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -220(favors Azaitar)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Azaitar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Frevola)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Karolina Kowalkiewicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kowalkiewicz 50%50% Juarez
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +72(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Kowalkiewicz)
FeatherweightMISS
Michael Trizano won by KO/TKO (R1)
Trizano 42%58% Choi
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -93(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Choi)
BantamweightMISS
Montel Jackson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jackson 46%54% Arce
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-17.9% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +60(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Arce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Jackson)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ulberg 49%51% Negumereanu
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Negumereanu)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.5(favors Ulberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Ulberg)