UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 364 points above Oliveira's 1846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Makhachev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Charles Oliveira. The model gives Makhachev a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Makhachev, but our model sees only 59%. That 5-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on TJ Dillashaw (13-4). Sterling will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sterling at 1683 versus Dillashaw at 1581. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over TJ Dillashaw. We're leaning Sterling here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Petr Yan (11-4). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yan at 1869 versus O'Malley at 1748. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Yan has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is O'Malley's striker game against Yan's all-rounder approach. O'Malley brings a versatile approach, while Yan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Sean O'Malley. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 77%. The market implies 28% for O'Malley, but our model sees only 23%. That 5-point gap favoring Yan is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Mateusz Gamrot (8-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gamrot at 1571 versus Dariush at 1437. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamrot throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. We're leaning Gamrot here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Manon Fiorot (7-1) taking on Katlyn Cerminara (11-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Fiorot is rated at 1641 — 359 points above Cerminara's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiorot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Fiorot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manon Fiorot over Katlyn Cerminara. The model gives Fiorot a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Sean Brady (8-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Muhammad at 1747 versus Brady at 1658. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Brady has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Brady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Sean Brady. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Muhammad at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 44% implied while our model sees 52% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (7-0) taking on Makhmud Muradov (4-2).

Borralho is rated at 1570 — 391 points above Muradov's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Borralho rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Borralho is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Muradov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Muradov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muradov throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Borralho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Muradov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Borralho over Makhmud Muradov. We're leaning Borralho here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Borralho at 67% implied while our model sees 73% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Volkan Oezdemir (8-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Oezdemir at 1501 versus Krylov at 1400. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Krylov's wrestler game against Oezdemir's striker approach. Krylov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Oezdemir brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir. The model gives Krylov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Krylov, but our model sees only 57%. That 6-point gap favoring Oezdemir is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Abubakar Nurmagomedov (2-1) taking on Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (0-1).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1015 — 173 points above Omargadzhiev's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gadzhi Omargadzhiev over Abubakar Nurmagomedov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Omargadzhiev at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Nurmagomedov, but our model sees only 47%. That 10-point gap favoring Omargadzhiev is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Armen Petrosyan (3-3) taking on AJ Dobson (1-2). Dobson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Petrosyan carries a modest Elo edge (910 to 836), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petrosyan throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Petrosyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Armen Petrosyan over AJ Dobson. The model gives Petrosyan a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-4).

Mokaev is rated at 1480 — 731 points above Gordon's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.2 more per 15 minutes. Mokaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Malcolm Gordon. The model is firm on this one: Mokaev at 87%. The market implies 90% for Mokaev, but our model sees only 87%. That 3-point gap favoring Gordon is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-6).

Rosa is rated at 1201 — 330 points above Lansberg's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rosa's striker game against Lansberg's all-rounder approach. Rosa brings a versatile approach, while Lansberg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karol Rosa over Lina Lansberg. The model is firm on this one: Rosa at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Rosa at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.