UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
Saturday, September 17, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
Cory Sandhagen won by KO/TKO (R4)
Sandhagen 37%63% Yadong
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Yadong)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Sandhagen)
MiddleweightMISS
Gregory Rodrigues won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodrigues 49%51% Njokuani
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+2.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Rodrigues)
FeatherweightMISS
Andre Fili won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fili 50%50% Algeo
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-4.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -189(favors Algeo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Algeo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Fili)
MiddleweightHIT
Joe Pyfer won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pyfer 90%10% Amedovski
STRONGMarket: 82% (+7.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +315(favors Pyfer)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Amedovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Amedovski)
HeavyweightMISS
Rodrigo Nascimento won by Decision - Split (R3)
Nascimento 34%66% Boser
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Boser)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Nascimento)
MiddleweightHIT
Anthony Hernandez won by Submission (R3)
Hernandez 67%33% Barriault
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.1(favors Hernandez)
FeatherweightMISS
Damon Jackson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jackson 35%65% Sabatini
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (+0.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Sabatini)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Sabatini)
WelterweightHIT
Trevin Giles won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Giles 67%33% Cosce
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +59(favors Giles)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Cosce)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Cosce)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Loma Lookboonmee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lookboonmee 48%52% Gomes
TOSS-UPMarket: 66% (-17.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Gomes)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Lookboonmee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Lookboonmee)
LightweightMISS
Trey Ogden won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ogden 30%70% Zellhuber
CONFIDENTMarket: 21% (+9.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -46(favors Zellhuber)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Ogden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Ogden)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Gillian Robertson won by Submission (R2)
Robertson 63%37% Agapova
LEANMarket: 58% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Agapova)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Robertson)
BantamweightHIT
Javid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Basharat 61%39% Gravely
LEANMarket: 60% (+1.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Gravely)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Basharat)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.7(favors Gravely)
LightweightHIT
Nikolas Motta won by KO/TKO (R1)
Motta 57%43% VanCamp
LEANMarket: 58% (-1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +14(favors Motta)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors VanCamp)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors VanCamp)