UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Saturday, September 10, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Nate Diaz won by Submission (R4)
Diaz 53%47% Ferguson
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+11.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +176(favors Diaz)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Diaz)
Catch WeightHIT
Khamzat Chimaev won by Submission (R1)
Chimaev 86%14% Holland
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Chimaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.4(favors Chimaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Chimaev)
Catch WeightHIT
Daniel Rodriguez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rodriguez 57%43% Jingliang
LEANMarket: 61% (-3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -123(favors Jingliang)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Jingliang)
Catch WeightMISS
Irene Aldana won by KO/TKO (R3)
Aldana 38%62% Chiasson
LEANMarket: 63% (-25.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Aldana)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Chiasson)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Johnny Walker won by Submission (R1)
Walker 49%51% Cutelaba
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+13.0% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +73(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.0(favors Cutelaba)
FeatherweightMISS
Julian Erosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Erosa 20%80% Dawodu
STRONGMarket: 34% (-14.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Dawodu)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Erosa)
Catch WeightHIT
Jailton Almeida won by Submission (R1)
Almeida 71%29% Turkalj
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +230(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Almeida)
MiddleweightMISS
Denis Tiuliulin won by KO/TKO (R2)
Tiuliulin 43%57% Pickett
LEANMarket: 46% (-3.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Pickett)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Tiuliulin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Pickett)
HeavyweightMISS
Chris Barnett won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barnett 23%77% Collier
STRONGMarket: 19% (+3.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Collier)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Collier)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Norma Dumont won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dumont 91%9% Wolf
STRONGMarket: 77% (+14.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +133(favors Dumont)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Dumont)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Dumont)
BantamweightHIT
Alatengheili won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alatengheili 61%39% Anheliger
LEAN
→Elo gap: +50(favors Alatengheili)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Anheliger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Alatengheili)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Elise Reed won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Reed 46%54% Martinez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -177(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Reed)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
WelterweightHIT
Yohan Lainesse won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lainesse 53%47% Weeks
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+5.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +32(favors Lainesse)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Weeks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Lainesse)