UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Kamaru Usman (15-3).

Usman is rated at 1828 — 232 points above Edwards's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Leon Edwards. The model is firm on this one: Usman at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Paulo Costa (6-4) taking on Luke Rockhold (6-4). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Costa is rated at 1513 — 211 points above Rockhold's 1302. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Costa's striker game against Rockhold's all-rounder approach. Costa brings a versatile approach, while Rockhold is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rockhold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Costa over Luke Rockhold. We're leaning Costa here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Costa, but our model sees only 68%. That 8-point gap favoring Rockhold is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8).

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 447 points above Aldo's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dvalishvili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Jose Aldo. We're leaning Dvalishvili here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 58% implied while our model sees 68% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lucie Pudilova (3-7) taking on Wu Yanan (1-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pudilova at 803 versus Yanan at 703. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yanan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Yanan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanan throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Yanan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pudilova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wu Yanan over Lucie Pudilova. The model gives Yanan a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tyson Pedro (6-4) taking on Harry Hunsucker (0-2). Pedro will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pedro is rated at 1015 — 290 points above Hunsucker's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pedro throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunsucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Pedro over Harry Hunsucker. The model is firm on this one: Pedro at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Alexandr Romanov (6-3). Tybura will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Romanov carries a modest Elo edge (1307 to 1242), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Tybura's striker game against Romanov's wrestler approach. Tybura brings a versatile approach, while Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romanov throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. The model gives Romanov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Leonardo Santos (7-2-1). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Gordon is rated at 1209 — 170 points above Santos's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gordon's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Gordon brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Gordon over Leonardo Santos. We're leaning Gordon here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Luis Saldana (2-1). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Woodson is rated at 1235 — 185 points above Saldana's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Saldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Luis Saldana. The model is firm on this one: Woodson at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Woodson at 77% implied while our model sees 81% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ange Loosa (2-2) taking on AJ Fletcher (1-2). Loosa will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fletcher carries a modest Elo edge (967 to 934), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Fletcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: AJ Fletcher over Ange Loosa. The model gives Fletcher a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Amir Albazi (5-1) taking on Francisco Figueiredo (2-1).

Albazi is rated at 1267 — 313 points above Figueiredo's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albazi throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amir Albazi over Francisco Figueiredo. The model is firm on this one: Albazi at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aoriqileng (3-4) taking on Jay Perrin (0-2).

Aoriqileng is rated at 1106 — 325 points above Perrin's 781. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aoriqileng throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Aoriqileng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Aoriqileng has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aoriqileng over Jay Perrin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aoriqileng at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Victor Altamirano (2-3) taking on Daniel Lacerda (0-4).

Altamirano is rated at 837 — 218 points above Lacerda's 619. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Altamirano throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Altamirano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Lacerda over Victor Altamirano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lacerda at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Altamirano, but our model sees only 47%. That 13-point gap favoring Lacerda is worth watching.