UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Dominick Reyes (9-4).

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 274 points above Reyes's 1529. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one, while Reyes has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's all-rounder game against Reyes's knockout artist approach. Ulberg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Reyes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes. The model gives Ulberg a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Ivan Erslan (0-2).

Crute is rated at 1151 — 316 points above Erslan's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Crute throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Erslan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan. The model gives Crute a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jack Jenkins (3-2) taking on Ramon Taveras (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jenkins at 1038 versus Taveras at 911. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jenkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jenkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jenkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Jenkins over Ramon Taveras. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jenkins at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Magny at 1270, Matthews at 1295. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Matthews has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Neil Magny. The model gives Matthews a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Tom Nolan (3-1) taking on Charlie Campbell (2-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Nolan.

Nolan is rated at 1262 — 201 points above Campbell's 1061. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nolan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nolan throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Campbell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Campbell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charlie Campbell over Tom Nolan. The model gives Campbell a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Navajo Stirling (2-0) taking on Rodolfo Bellato (1-0-1). Stirling will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Stirling is rated at 1202 — 169 points above Bellato's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stirling throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bellato is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stirling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Navajo Stirling over Rodolfo Bellato. The model gives Stirling a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cam Rowston (1-0) taking on Andre Petroski (8-3). Rowston is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Rowston is rated at 1224 — 257 points above Petroski's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petroski throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Rowston has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Cam Rowston. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petroski at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Mullarkey (6-6) taking on Rolando Bedoya (0-3).

Mullarkey is rated at 947 — 183 points above Bedoya's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bedoya throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Mullarkey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Rolando Bedoya. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mullarkey at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Colby Thicknesse (0-1) taking on Josias Musasa (0-1). Musasa will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Thicknesse is rated at 990 — 191 points above Musasa's 799. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Musasa throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Musasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Thicknesse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colby Thicknesse over Josias Musasa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thicknesse at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Michelle Montague (0-0) taking on Luana Carolina (6-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Montague.

There's a real Elo separation here: Montague at 1121 versus Carolina at 1036. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Carolina has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Carolina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Montague has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michelle Montague over Luana Carolina. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Montague at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brando Pericic (0-0) taking on Elisha Ellison (0-0). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Pericic.

Pericic is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Ellison's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellison throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellison is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ellison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elisha Ellison over Brando Pericic. The model gives Ellison a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alexia Thainara (1-0) taking on Loma Lookboonmee (7-2). Thainara is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Thainara at 1198 versus Lookboonmee at 1089. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Lookboonmee has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thainara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Thainara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Alexia Thainara. The model gives Lookboonmee a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.