UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-4) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14).

Fiziev carries a modest Elo edge (1312 to 1282), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Fiziev's striker game against Anjos's wrestler approach. Fiziev brings a versatile approach, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiziev throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model gives Fiziev a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (7-0) taking on Armen Petrosyan (3-3). Borralho will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Borralho is rated at 1570 — 660 points above Petrosyan's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Borralho rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Borralho's all-rounder game against Petrosyan's striker approach. Borralho is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Petrosyan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petrosyan throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Borralho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Borralho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Borralho over Armen Petrosyan. We're leaning Borralho here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-3) taking on Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5).

Nurmagomedov carries a modest Elo edge (1181 to 1146), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's all-rounder game against Andrade's knockout artist approach. Nurmagomedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Andrade is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Douglas Silva de Andrade. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 80% implied while our model sees 90% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chase Sherman (4-10) taking on Jared Vanderaa (1-5).

Sherman is rated at 822 — 151 points above Vanderaa's 671. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Vanderaa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sherman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Vanderaa over Chase Sherman. We're leaning Vanderaa here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Sherman, but our model sees only 27%. That 6-point gap favoring Vanderaa is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Ricky Turcios (2-2). Turcios will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 757 points above Turcios's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turcios throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Turcios is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Turcios over Aiemann Zahabi. The model is firm on this one: Turcios at 75%. The market implies 33% for Zahabi, but our model sees only 25%. That 8-point gap favoring Turcios is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Mullarkey (6-6) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 298 points above Mullarkey's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mullarkey's submission artist game against Johnson's striker approach. Mullarkey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Michael Johnson. The model is firm on this one: Mullarkey at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Mullarkey at 67% implied while our model sees 78% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Cody Brundage (5-6) taking on Tresean Gore (2-3). Gore will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gore carries a modest Elo edge (916 to 870), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Brundage is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gore is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gore the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gore throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Brundage has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Brundage over Tresean Gore. The model gives Brundage a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Brundage at 43% implied while our model sees 60% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Antonina Shevchenko (3-4) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Shevchenko at 1027 versus Casey at 904. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Casey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shevchenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cortney Casey over Antonina Shevchenko. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Casey at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Shevchenko, but our model sees only 46%. That 16-point gap favoring Casey is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features David Onama (6-2) taking on Garrett Armfield (2-2). Onama is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Onama is rated at 1311 — 388 points above Armfield's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Onama rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Onama throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Armfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Armfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Onama over Garrett Armfield. The model is firm on this one: Onama at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Karl Roberson (4-5). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Nzechukwu is rated at 1071 — 254 points above Roberson's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nzechukwu's striker game against Roberson's all-rounder approach. Nzechukwu brings a versatile approach, while Roberson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Karl Roberson. We're leaning Nzechukwu here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nzechukwu at 60% implied while our model sees 69% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Saidyokub Kakhramonov (2-0) taking on Ronnie Lawrence (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kakhramonov at 1182 versus Lawrence at 1079. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawrence throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawrence is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Kakhramonov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronnie Lawrence over Saidyokub Kakhramonov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lawrence at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.