UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 369 points above Rozenstruik's 1385. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rozenstruik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The model gives Volkov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Volkov, but our model sees only 58%. That 4-point gap favoring Rozenstruik is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Dan Ige (11-9).

Evloev is rated at 1715 — 480 points above Ige's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Evloev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evloev throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Evloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Dan Ige. The model is firm on this one: Evloev at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Evloev at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Lucas Almeida (2-3) taking on Michael Trizano (3-3).

Trizano is rated at 1073 — 268 points above Almeida's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Almeida's striker game against Trizano's all-rounder approach. Almeida brings a versatile approach, while Trizano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trizano throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Trizano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Trizano over Lucas Almeida. The model gives Trizano a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Karine Silva (5-1) taking on Poliana Botelho (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Botelho.

Silva is rated at 1237 — 377 points above Botelho's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's wrestler game against Botelho's striker approach. Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Botelho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Botelho throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Botelho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karine Silva over Poliana Botelho. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Ode Osbourne (5-7) taking on Zarrukh Adashev (1-2). Osbourne is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Osbourne carries a modest Elo edge (846 to 808), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Adashev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ode Osbourne over Zarrukh Adashev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Osbourne at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Askar Mozharov (0-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Mozharov.

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 293 points above Mozharov's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Menifield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Mozharov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Askar Mozharov. We're leaning Menifield here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Felice Herrig (5-4).

Kowalkiewicz carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 822), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herrig throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Herrig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Felice Herrig. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kowalkiewicz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kowalkiewicz at 49% implied while our model sees 53% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Solecki (5-3) taking on Alex Da Silva (1-2). Silva will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Solecki at 1032 versus Silva at 930. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Solecki throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Solecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Solecki over Alex Da Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Solecki at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Damon Jackson (6-5-1) taking on Dan Argueta (1-2). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1039 — 180 points above Argueta's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Argueta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damon Jackson over Dan Argueta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jackson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Niklas Stolze (0-2).

Denis is rated at 1743 — 1007 points above Stolze's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Stolze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis over Niklas Stolze. We're leaning Denis here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tony Gravely (4-3) taking on Johnny Munoz (2-3). Munoz is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gravely at 1012 versus Munoz at 880. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Gravely's striker game against Munoz's wrestler approach. Gravely brings a versatile approach, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gravely throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gravely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Munoz over Tony Gravely. The model gives Munoz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jeff Molina (2-0) taking on Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-5). Molina is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Molina is rated at 1201 — 437 points above Zhumagulov's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Molina throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhumagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Zhumagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Molina over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. We're leaning Molina here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Molina at 63% implied while our model sees 69% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Rinat Fakhretdinov (5-0-1) taking on Andreas Michailidis (1-2).

Fakhretdinov is rated at 1483 — 681 points above Michailidis's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michailidis throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Michailidis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Fakhretdinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov over Andreas Michailidis. We're leaning Fakhretdinov here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Fakhretdinov at 70% implied while our model sees 75% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Erin Blanchfield (7-1) taking on JJ Aldrich (9-6).

Blanchfield is rated at 1631 — 552 points above Aldrich's 1079. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blanchfield's all-rounder game against Aldrich's striker approach. Blanchfield is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aldrich brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanchfield throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanchfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Blanchfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over JJ Aldrich. We're leaning Blanchfield here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.