UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Amanda Lemos (9-4). Lemos is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 220 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Andrade's all-rounder game against Lemos's knockout artist approach. Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Amanda Lemos. We're leaning Andrade here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Claudio Puelles (5-3) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). Puelles is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Puelles at 1040 versus Guida at 926. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Puelles looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Puelles the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Clay Guida. We're leaning Puelles here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Puelles at 51% implied while our model sees 65% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1). Rosa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Barber is rated at 1543 — 507 points above Rosa's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Barber is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rosa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barber throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Barber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maycee Barber over Montana De La Rosa. The model gives Barber a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2).

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 455 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Vannata is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Lando Vannata. The model gives Jourdain a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jourdain at 52% implied while our model sees 57% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9) taking on Jordan Wright (2-4). Wright will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barriault is rated at 954 — 261 points above Wright's 693. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barriault's striker game against Wright's submission artist approach. Barriault brings a versatile approach, while Wright is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wright throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barriault is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Jordan Wright. The model gives Barriault a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Barriault, but our model sees only 61%. That 4-point gap favoring Wright is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergey Khandozhko (1-1) taking on Dwight Grant (3-4).

Khandozhko is rated at 1193 — 364 points above Grant's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Khandozhko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergey Khandozhko over Dwight Grant. The model gives Khandozhko a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tyson Pedro (6-4) taking on Ike Villanueva (1-4). Pedro is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Pedro is rated at 1015 — 362 points above Villanueva's 653. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Villanueva brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pedro the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villanueva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Villanueva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Pedro over Ike Villanueva. We're leaning Pedro here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aoriqileng (3-4) taking on Cameron Else (0-1). Else is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Aoriqileng is rated at 1106 — 360 points above Else's 745. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aoriqileng throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Aoriqileng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Else has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aoriqileng over Cameron Else. The model gives Aoriqileng a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Preston Parsons (2-3) taking on Evan Elder (2-2).

Elder is rated at 1085 — 218 points above Parsons's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parsons throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Preston Parsons over Evan Elder. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parsons at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Parsons, but our model sees only 54%. That 4-point gap favoring Elder is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Philipe Lins (3-2) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-6). Lins will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lins is rated at 1256 — 438 points above Prachnio's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lins rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prachnio throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Prachnio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Prachnio over Philipe Lins. We're leaning Prachnio here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 47% for Lins, but our model sees only 33%. That 13-point gap favoring Prachnio is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Jackson (1-1) taking on Dean Barry (0-0). Jackson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Barry is rated at 1000 — 244 points above Jackson's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dean Barry over Mike Jackson. We're leaning Barry here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jackson at 11% implied while our model sees 26% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.