UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad
Saturday, April 16, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 10/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Muhammad 37%63% Luque
LEANMarket: 38% (-0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Muhammad)
MiddleweightMISS
Caio Borralho won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borralho 50%50% Omargadzhiev
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Omargadzhiev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Omargadzhiev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Omargadzhiev)
WelterweightMISS
Andre Fialho won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fialho 32%68% Baeza
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (-6.6% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -189(favors Baeza)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Baeza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Baeza)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Mayra Bueno Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 60%40% Yanan
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +124(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Yanan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Yanan)
FeatherweightHIT
Pat Sabatini won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sabatini 70%30% Laramie
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +385(favors Sabatini)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Sabatini)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Sabatini)
WelterweightHIT
Mounir Lazzez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lazzez 50%50% Loosa
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-14.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +44(favors Lazzez)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Lazzez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Lazzez)
HeavyweightHIT
Devin Clark won by KO/TKO (R3)
Clark 59%41% Knight
LEANMarket: 62% (-2.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Clark)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Pannie Kianzad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kianzad 87%13% Lansberg
STRONGMarket: 82% (+5.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Kianzad)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Lansberg)
LightweightHIT
Drakkar Klose won by KO/TKO (R2)
Klose 81%19% Jenkins
STRONGMarket: 83% (-2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +385(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Klose)
LightweightHIT
Rafa Garcia won by Submission (R2)
Garcia 66%34% Ronson
CONFIDENTMarket: 43% (+23.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +178(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ronson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Garcia)
HeavyweightHIT
Martin Buday won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buday 74%26% Barnett
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Barnett)
LightweightHIT
Jordan Leavitt won by Decision - Split (R3)
Leavitt 67%33% Ogden
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Leavitt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Leavitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Leavitt)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Sam Hughes won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Hughes 27%73% Nunes
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -89(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nunes)
BantamweightHIT
Alatengheili won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alatengheili 67%33% Croom
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +151(favors Alatengheili)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Alatengheili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Alatengheili)