UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Chan Sung Jung (7-4).

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 296 points above Jung's 1528. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's striker game against Jung's all-rounder approach. Volkanovski brings a versatile approach, while Jung is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Chan Sung Jung. We're leaning Volkanovski here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Petr Yan (11-4). Sterling will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yan is rated at 1869 — 186 points above Sterling's 1683. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Aljamain Sterling. We're leaning Yan here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 22% implied while our model sees 27% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8). Chimaev is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 608 points above Burns's 1379. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chimaev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chimaev throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Chimaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over Gilbert Burns. The model is firm on this one: Chimaev at 78%. The market implies 81% for Chimaev, but our model sees only 78%. That 3-point gap favoring Burns is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-7). Dern is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 266 points above Pennington's 1206. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dern is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Mackenzie Dern. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pennington at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Dern, but our model sees only 49%. That 4-point gap favoring Pennington is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Madsen (4-1) taking on Vinc Pichel (7-4).

Madsen carries a modest Elo edge (1112 to 1062), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Madsen's striker game against Pichel's all-rounder approach. Madsen brings a versatile approach, while Pichel is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinc Pichel over Mark Madsen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pichel at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Darian Weeks (0-2). Garry is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Garry is rated at 1787 — 991 points above Weeks's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weeks throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Weeks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Darian Weeks. The model is firm on this one: Garry at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Garry at 79% implied while our model sees 89% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Josh Fremd (2-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Fremd.

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 708 points above Fremd's 894. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Fremd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Josh Fremd. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Hernandez, but our model sees only 53%. That 10-point gap favoring Fremd is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Aspen Ladd (4-2).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 287 points above Ladd's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ladd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ladd the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ladd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Aspen Ladd. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pennington at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Pennington, but our model sees only 53%. That 8-point gap favoring Ladd is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Malott (5-1) taking on Mickey Gall (6-6).

Malott is rated at 1410 — 650 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Malott is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gall looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gall the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gall throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Malott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mickey Gall over Mike Malott. The model gives Gall a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Malott, but our model sees only 44%. That 16-point gap favoring Gall is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Jared Vanderaa (1-5).

Oleinik is rated at 1073 — 402 points above Vanderaa's 671. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oleinik's submission artist game against Vanderaa's striker approach. Oleinik is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Vanderaa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vanderaa throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Vanderaa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Vanderaa over Aleksei Oleinik. The model gives Vanderaa a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Piera Rodriguez (3-2) taking on Kay Hansen (1-2).

Rodriguez is rated at 1203 — 353 points above Hansen's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hansen throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hansen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Piera Rodriguez over Kay Hansen. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 53% implied while our model sees 57% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Julio Arce (5-4) taking on Daniel Santos (3-1). Arce will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1320 — 153 points above Arce's 1167. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arce throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Arce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julio Arce over Daniel Santos. The model gives Arce a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Arce, but our model sees only 60%. That 5-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.