UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Saturday, December 11, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R3)
Oliveira 48%52% Poirier
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+3.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Oliveira)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Julianna Pena won by Submission (R2)
Pena 43%57% Nunes
LEANMarket: 12% (+31.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -449(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Nunes)
WelterweightMISS
Geoff Neal won by Decision - Split (R3)
Neal 46%54% Ponzinibbio
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+0.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -174(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Ponzinibbio)
FlyweightMISS
Kai Kara-France won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kara-France 46%54% Garbrandt
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -235(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Garbrandt)
BantamweightHIT
Sean O'Malley won by KO/TKO (R1)
O'Malley 68%32% Paiva
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors O'Malley)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors O'Malley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Paiva)
FeatherweightMISS
Josh Emmett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Emmett 35%65% Ige
LEANMarket: 56% (-20.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +180(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Emmett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ige)
BantamweightHIT
Dominick Cruz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cruz 66%34% Munhoz
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+16.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +93(favors Cruz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Cruz)
HeavyweightHIT
Tai Tuivasa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Tuivasa 58%42% Sakai
LEANMarket: 54% (+4.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +118(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sakai)
MiddleweightHIT
Bruno Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 72%28% Wright
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-2.2% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Wright)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wright)
MiddleweightHIT
Andre Muniz won by Submission (R1)
Muniz 59%41% Anders
LEANMarket: 64% (-4.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +175(favors Muniz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Muniz)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Erin Blanchfield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blanchfield 60%40% Maverick
LEANMarket: 43% (+17.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Blanchfield)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Blanchfield)
FeatherweightHIT
Ryan Hall won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hall 55%45% Minner
LEANMarket: 65% (-9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +147(favors Hall)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Minner)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Minner)
BantamweightMISS
Tony Kelley won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kelley 27%73% Costa
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (-9.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -16(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Costa)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Gillian Robertson won by Submission (R1)
Robertson 77%23% Cachoeira
STRONGMarket: 75% (+2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Cachoeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Robertson)