UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Miesha Tate (7-6). Vieira is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Vieira is rated at 1294 — 217 points above Tate's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tate throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Miesha Tate. We're leaning Vieira here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 50% implied while our model sees 68% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Brady (8-1) taking on Michael Chiesa (13-7). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Brady is rated at 1658 — 168 points above Chiesa's 1490. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brady rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brady throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Sean Brady. The model gives Chiesa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Brady, but our model sees only 43%. That 21-point gap favoring Chiesa is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Taila Santos (4-2) taking on Joanne Wood (8-8). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1262 — 161 points above Wood's 1101. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taila Santos over Joanne Wood. The model is firm on this one: Santos at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Kyung Ho Kang (8-4). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yahya at 1030, Kang at 1029. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kang throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Kyung Ho Kang. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yahya at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Yahya at 48% implied while our model sees 52% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Adrian Yanez (6-2) taking on Davey Grant (8-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yanez at 1203, Grant at 1200. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Yanez's striker game against Grant's all-rounder approach. Yanez brings a versatile approach, while Grant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanez throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Yanez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adrian Yanez over Davey Grant. We're leaning Yanez here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on Tucker Lutz (1-2).

Sabatini is rated at 1425 — 572 points above Lutz's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lutz throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lutz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tucker Lutz over Pat Sabatini. The model gives Lutz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Sabatini, but our model sees only 41%. That 7-point gap favoring Lutz is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafa Garcia (5-4) taking on Natan Levy (2-1).

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 445 points above Levy's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Levy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Natan Levy over Rafa Garcia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Levy at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Loma Lookboonmee (7-2).

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 172 points above Lookboonmee's 1089. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lookboonmee has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lookboonmee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Godinez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Loopy Godinez. The model gives Lookboonmee a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-6-1) taking on Aoriqileng (3-4).

Aoriqileng is rated at 1106 — 260 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Durden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Aoriqileng brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Durden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aoriqileng throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Aoriqileng has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aoriqileng over Cody Durden. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aoriqileng at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-2) taking on Sean Soriano (0-4).

Nuerdanbieke is rated at 890 — 196 points above Soriano's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nuerdanbieke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke over Sean Soriano. The model gives Nuerdanbieke a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Luana Pinheiro (3-3) taking on Sam Hughes (5-5). Hughes is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hughes is rated at 1232 — 318 points above Pinheiro's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pinheiro throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinheiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 17.6 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Pinheiro over Sam Hughes. The model is firm on this one: Pinheiro at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Pinheiro at 78% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.