UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Yair Rodriguez (10-4).

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 338 points above Rodriguez's 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Yair Rodriguez. The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 84% implied while our model sees 87% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7). Rothwell is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1275 — 196 points above Rothwell's 1080. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lima is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lima the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Ben Rothwell. We're leaning Lima here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 40% implied while our model sees 69% — a 29-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Felicia Spencer (2-3) taking on Leah Letson (1-0). Letson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Spencer is rated at 1190 — 253 points above Letson's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Letson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Spencer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Letson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felicia Spencer over Leah Letson. We're leaning Spencer here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Spencer, but our model sees only 66%. That 9-point gap favoring Letson is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Khaos Williams (6-3) taking on Miguel Baeza (3-3). Williams will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Williams is rated at 1159 — 308 points above Baeza's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Williams brings a versatile approach, while Baeza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Baeza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baeza throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Baeza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khaos Williams over Miguel Baeza. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Williams at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Julio Arce (5-4). Arce will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 380 points above Arce's 1167. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yadong throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Arce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Julio Arce. We're leaning Yadong here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Thiago Moises (8-6). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 440 points above Moises's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Moises has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Moises over Joel Alvarez. The model is firm on this one: Moises at 78%. The market implies 30% for Alvarez, but our model sees only 22%. That 8-point gap favoring Moises is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Andrea Lee (5-8) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Calvillo carries a modest Elo edge (911 to 864), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrea Lee over Cynthia Calvillo. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 47% implied while our model sees 58% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Collin Anglin (0-1). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Woodson is rated at 1235 — 459 points above Anglin's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anglin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Collin Anglin. The model is firm on this one: Woodson at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Woodson at 76% implied while our model sees 83% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Cortney Casey (6-8) taking on Liana Jojua (1-2). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Casey at 904 versus Jojua at 777. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jojua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cortney Casey over Liana Jojua. We're leaning Casey here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Alves (1-2) taking on Marc Diakiese (7-7). Diakiese is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Diakiese at 1050 versus Alves at 958. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diakiese throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Rafael Alves. The model is firm on this one: Diakiese at 76%. The market implies 29% for Alves, but our model sees only 24%. That 6-point gap favoring Diakiese is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Da Woon Jung (4-3-1) taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6). Nzechukwu will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nzechukwu at 1071 versus Jung at 979. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Jung looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jung the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da Woon Jung over Kennedy Nzechukwu. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jung at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.