UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Featherweight championship matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Aspen Ladd (4-2).

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 422 points above Ladd's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dumont's striker game against Ladd's submission artist approach. Dumont brings a versatile approach, while Ladd is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ladd throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ladd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aspen Ladd over Norma Dumont. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ladd at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Carlos Felipe (3-1). Arlovski is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Felipe is rated at 1057 — 199 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Felipe has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felipe throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Felipe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Felipe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Felipe over Andrei Arlovski. The model gives Felipe a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 50% for Arlovski, but our model sees only 41%. That 9-point gap favoring Felipe is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Erick Gonzalez (0-2). Gonzalez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 424 points above Gonzalez's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gonzalez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Erick Gonzalez. We're leaning Miller here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Manon Fiorot (7-1) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1).

Fiorot is rated at 1641 — 626 points above Silva's 1016. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fiorot's striker game against Silva's wrestler approach. Fiorot brings a versatile approach, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiorot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Fiorot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manon Fiorot over Mayra Bueno Silva. We're leaning Fiorot here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Nate Landwehr (5-4) taking on Ludovit Klein (7-3-1).

Klein is rated at 1364 — 384 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Landwehr's all-rounder game against Klein's striker approach. Landwehr is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Klein brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Landwehr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Nate Landwehr. The model is firm on this one: Klein at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-6) taking on Andrew Sanchez (5-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sanchez at 932 versus Silva at 798. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bruno Silva over Andrew Sanchez. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-6) taking on Ramazan Emeev (5-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Roberts.

There's a real Elo separation here: Emeev at 1047 versus Roberts at 906. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Roberts is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Emeev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Emeev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Emeev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Emeev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramazan Emeev over Danny Roberts. The model is firm on this one: Emeev at 79%. The market implies 26% for Roberts, but our model sees only 21%. That 5-point gap favoring Emeev is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Carolina (6-3) taking on Loopy Godinez (8-5). Carolina is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 224 points above Carolina's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Carolina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Carolina's striker game against Godinez's wrestler approach. Carolina brings a versatile approach, while Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Luana Carolina. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Godinez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Batgerel Danaa (3-3) taking on Brandon Davis (2-6). Davis is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Danaa carries a modest Elo edge (887 to 825), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Danaa's striker game against Davis's wrestler approach. Danaa brings a versatile approach, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danaa throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Danaa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Batgerel Danaa over Brandon Davis. The model gives Danaa a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ariane Carnelossi (3-2) taking on Istela Nunes (0-4). Nunes is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Carnelossi is rated at 929 — 238 points above Nunes's 691. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carnelossi throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ariane Carnelossi over Istela Nunes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carnelossi at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Carnelossi, but our model sees only 52%. That 8-point gap favoring Nunes is worth watching.