UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Mackenzie Dern (10-5). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 413 points above Rodriguez's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dern is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Marina Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dern at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Jared Gooden (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Brown.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 420 points above Gooden's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's all-rounder game against Gooden's knockout artist approach. Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gooden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Jared Gooden. We're leaning Brown here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Matheus Nicolau (7-3) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11).

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 208 points above Nicolau's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nicolau's knockout artist game against Elliott's wrestler approach. Nicolau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicolau throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Tim Elliott. We're leaning Nicolau here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nicolau at 64% implied while our model sees 68% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mariya Agapova (2-3) taking on Sabina Mazo (3-3).

Agapova carries a modest Elo edge (837 to 804), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Agapova is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Mazo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Mazo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazo throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Agapova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Mazo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sabina Mazo over Mariya Agapova. The model gives Mazo a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Felipe Colares (2-3).

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 423 points above Colares's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gutierrez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Colares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Colares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Felipe Colares. We're leaning Gutierrez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (6-3) taking on Jared Vanderaa (1-5). Vanderaa is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Romanov is rated at 1307 — 636 points above Vanderaa's 671. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Romanov's wrestler game against Vanderaa's striker approach. Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vanderaa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vanderaa throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Romanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Jared Vanderaa. We're leaning Romanov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Damon Jackson (6-5-1) taking on Charles Rosa (5-7). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1039 — 223 points above Rosa's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damon Jackson over Charles Rosa. We're leaning Jackson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jackson at 62% implied while our model sees 68% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Silvana Gomez Juarez (1-2). Juarez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 414 points above Juarez's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Juarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Silvana Gomez Juarez. We're leaning Godinez here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Steve Garcia (7-2) taking on Charlie Ontiveros (0-2).

Garcia is rated at 1593 — 879 points above Ontiveros's 714. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over Charlie Ontiveros. We're leaning Garcia here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 73% for Garcia, but our model sees only 67%. That 5-point gap favoring Ontiveros is worth watching.