UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Saturday, October 2, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Thiago Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Santos 50%50% Walker
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-10.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Santos)
Middleweight
Holland 66%34% Daukaus
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Daukaus)
WelterweightHIT
Niko Price won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Price 55%45% Oliveira
LEANMarket: 59% (-3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Price)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Oliveira)
MiddleweightHIT
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jotko 63%37% Cirkunov
LEANMarket: 59% (+4.1% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +114(favors Jotko)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Cirkunov)
LightweightHIT
Alexander Hernandez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hernandez 67%33% Breeden
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +211(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Hernandez)
LightweightMISS
Jared Gordon won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gordon 38%62% Solecki
LEANMarket: 44% (-6.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Solecki)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Gordon)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Casey O'Neill won by KO/TKO (R2)
O'Neill 78%22% Shevchenko
STRONGMarket: 66% (+12.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +178(favors O'Neill)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors O'Neill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors O'Neill)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Karol Rosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rosa 93%7% Correia
STRONGMarket: 79% (+14.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +275(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Rosa)
LightweightHIT
Jamie Mullarkey won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mullarkey 56%44% Smith
LEANMarket: 42% (+14.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Mullarkey)
BantamweightHIT
Douglas Silva de Andrade won by KO/TKO (R1)
Andrade 57%43% Pirrello
LEAN
→Elo gap: +90(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Andrade)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Stephanie Egger won by KO/TKO (R2)
Egger 71%29% Young
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+18.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -2(favors Young)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Young)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Egger)
BantamweightHIT
Alejandro Perez won by Submission (R2)
Perez 77%23% Eduardo
STRONGMarket: 67% (+10.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Eduardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Perez)