UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Saturday, September 25, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 10/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Volkanovski 72%28% Ortega
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +143(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ortega)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Valentina Shevchenko won by KO/TKO (R4)
Shevchenko 89%11% Murphy
STRONGMarket: 91% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +321(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Shevchenko)
MiddleweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lawler 36%64% Diaz
LEANMarket: 58% (-22.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +7(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Lawler)
HeavyweightHIT
Curtis Blaydes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blaydes 86%14% Rozenstruik
STRONGMarket: 74% (+12.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Rozenstruik)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.5(favors Blaydes)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jessica Andrade won by KO/TKO (R1)
Andrade 66%34% Calvillo
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-3.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Calvillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Andrade)
BantamweightHIT
Merab Dvalishvili won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dvalishvili 80%20% Moraes
STRONGMarket: 68% (+11.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +114(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Dvalishvili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Dvalishvili)
LightweightMISS
Dan Hooker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hooker 39%61% Haqparast
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Hooker)
HeavyweightHIT
Chris Daukaus won by KO/TKO (R2)
Daukaus 66%34% Abdurakhimov
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+1.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors Daukaus)
→Striking volume advantage: +10.0(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Abdurakhimov)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Taila Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 88%12% Modafferi
STRONGMarket: 78% (+9.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Santos)
LightweightMISS
Jalin Turner won by Submission (R1)
Turner 34%66% Medic
CONFIDENTMarket: 48% (-13.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +96(favors Turner)
→Striking volume advantage: -21.7(favors Medic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Turner)
MiddleweightHIT
Nick Maximov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maximov 58%42% Brundage
LEANMarket: 55% (+3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Brundage)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Brundage)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Brundage)
WelterweightHIT
Matthew Semelsberger won by KO/TKO (R1)
Semelsberger 72%28% Sano
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +110(favors Semelsberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Semelsberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Semelsberger)
FeatherweightHIT
Jonathan Pearce won by Submission (R2)
Pearce 54%46% Morales
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+13.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -105(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Pearce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.1(favors Pearce)