UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10).

Gane is rated at 1884 — 518 points above Lewis's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Lewis's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lewis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Derrick Lewis. We're leaning Gane here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). Aldo will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aldo is rated at 1420 — 209 points above Munhoz's 1211. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aldo's striker game against Munhoz's all-rounder approach. Aldo brings a versatile approach, while Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Munhoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Jose Aldo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Munhoz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Aldo, but our model sees only 47%. That 5-point gap favoring Munhoz is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Michael Chiesa (13-7).

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 240 points above Luque's 1250. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Luque is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiesa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Michael Chiesa. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Luque at 53% implied while our model sees 57% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Angela Hill (13-15). Hill is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pennington at 1206 versus Hill at 1074. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Angela Hill over Tecia Pennington. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hill at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Pennington, but our model sees only 46%. That 10-point gap favoring Hill is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Casey Kenney (5-2).

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 314 points above Kenney's 1234. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenney throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kenney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kenney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Casey Kenney over Song Yadong. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kenney at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-4) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Fiziev at 1312 versus Green at 1176. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Fiziev's striker game against Green's all-rounder approach. Fiziev brings a versatile approach, while Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over King Green. The model gives Fiziev a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 73% for Fiziev, but our model sees only 62%. That 11-point gap favoring Green is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vince Morales (3-7) taking on Drako Rodriguez (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Morales at 852 versus Rodriguez at 754. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drako Rodriguez over Vince Morales. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 162 points above Herman's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Menifield looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Menifield the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Menifield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Ed Herman. The model is firm on this one: Menifield at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Menifield at 68% implied while our model sees 77% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Penne (3-5) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kowalkiewicz carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 803), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Penne's striker game against Kowalkiewicz's all-rounder approach. Penne brings a versatile approach, while Kowalkiewicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Penne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. The model gives Kowalkiewicz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Penne, but our model sees only 43%. That 5-point gap favoring Kowalkiewicz is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Manel Kape (6-3) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-7). Osbourne is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kape is rated at 1586 — 740 points above Osbourne's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kape is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kape has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manel Kape over Ode Osbourne. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kape at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miles Johns (6-4) taking on Anderson Dos Santos (1-2).

Johns is rated at 1044 — 167 points above Santos's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miles Johns over Anderson Dos Santos. We're leaning Johns here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Melissa Gatto (2-2) taking on Victoria Leonardo (1-3). Gatto will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gatto is rated at 1148 — 367 points above Leonardo's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leonardo throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Leonardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gatto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melissa Gatto over Victoria Leonardo. The model gives Gatto a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Gatto at 52% implied while our model sees 63% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Munoz (2-3) taking on Jamey Simmons (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Munoz.

Munoz carries a modest Elo edge (880 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Munoz over Jamey Simmons. The model is firm on this one: Munoz at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Munoz at 69% implied while our model sees 75% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.