UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
Saturday, July 24, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
TJ Dillashaw won by Decision - Split (R5)
Dillashaw 42%58% Sandhagen
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Dillashaw)
BantamweightMISS
Raulian Paiva won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Paiva 24%76% Phillips
STRONGMarket: 29% (-5.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -221(favors Phillips)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Phillips)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Phillips)
FeatherweightMISS
Darren Elkins won by KO/TKO (R2)
Elkins 43%57% Minner
LEANMarket: 42% (+1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Minner)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Minner)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Maycee Barber won by Decision - Split (R3)
Barber 58%42% Maverick
LEANMarket: 44% (+14.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -95(favors Maverick)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Maverick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Maverick)
BantamweightHIT
Adrian Yanez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Yanez 75%25% Costa
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+7.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Yanez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Costa)
MiddleweightHIT
Brendan Allen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Allen 66%34% Soriano
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Soriano)
MiddleweightHIT
Nassourdine Imavov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Imavov 63%37% Heinisch
LEANMarket: 43% (+20.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -227(favors Heinisch)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Imavov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Heinisch)
WelterweightHIT
Mickey Gall won by Submission (R1)
Gall 55%45% Williams
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+15.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +117(favors Gall)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Gall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Gall)
BantamweightHIT
Julio Arce won by KO/TKO (R2)
Arce 59%41% Ewell
LEANMarket: 64% (-4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Ewell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Ewell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Arce)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sijara Eubanks won by KO/TKO (R1)
Eubanks 75%25% Reed
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (+0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Reed)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Eubanks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Eubanks)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Diana Belbita won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Belbita 62%38% Goldy
LEANMarket: 48% (+14.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -128(favors Goldy)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Belbita)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Belbita)