UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya is rated at 1559 — 280 points above Vettori's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Marvin Vettori. We're leaning Adesanya here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Figueiredo at 1490 versus Moreno at 1410. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Moreno's all-rounder game against Figueiredo's knockout artist approach. Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Brandon Moreno. The model gives Figueiredo a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moreno at 33% implied while our model sees 41% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11).

Edwards carries a modest Elo edge (1596 to 1557), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Nate Diaz. The model is firm on this one: Edwards at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 82% implied while our model sees 91% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Demian Maia (22-10).

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 376 points above Maia's 1371. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Muhammad is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Demian Maia. The model is firm on this one: Muhammad at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 69% implied while our model sees 79% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Jamahal Hill (6-3). Hill will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hill is rated at 1396 — 351 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Craig's wrestler game against Hill's striker approach. Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Paul Craig. We're leaning Hill here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Brad Riddell (4-2) taking on Drew Dober (13-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Riddell at 1088, Dober at 1083. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Riddell's striker game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Riddell brings a versatile approach, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddell throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Riddell over Drew Dober. The model gives Riddell a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Riddell at 44% implied while our model sees 63% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6).

Anders is rated at 1106 — 166 points above Stewart's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Anders's striker game against Stewart's all-rounder approach. Anders brings a versatile approach, while Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eryk Anders over Darren Stewart. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anders at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Anders, but our model sees only 50%. That 8-point gap favoring Stewart is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Joanne Wood (8-8).

Murphy carries a modest Elo edge (1171 to 1101), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanne Wood over Lauren Murphy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wood at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Murphy at 42% implied while our model sees 45% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Hakeem Dawodu (6-3).

Evloev is rated at 1715 — 625 points above Dawodu's 1090. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Evloev's wrestler game against Dawodu's striker approach. Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dawodu brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawodu throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Evloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Hakeem Dawodu. We're leaning Evloev here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Pannie Kianzad (5-5) taking on Alexis Davis (7-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Davis at 1030 versus Kianzad at 943. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kianzad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pannie Kianzad over Alexis Davis. We're leaning Kianzad here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Terrance McKinney (7-4) taking on Matt Frevola (5-5-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McKinney at 1110, Frevola at 1093. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Frevola looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Frevola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frevola throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. McKinney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Frevola over Terrance McKinney. We're leaning Frevola here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Steven Peterson (3-4) taking on Chase Hooper (8-3). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hooper is rated at 1175 — 255 points above Peterson's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hooper has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Peterson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hooper the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peterson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Peterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Peterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Steven Peterson. The model gives Hooper a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Peterson, but our model sees only 35%. That 16-point gap favoring Hooper is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Luigi Vendramini (1-2). Ziam is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 692 points above Vendramini's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vendramini throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ziam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fares Ziam over Luigi Vendramini. We're leaning Ziam here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ziam at 55% implied while our model sees 67% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Felipe (3-1) taking on Jake Collier (5-8). Collier is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Felipe is rated at 1057 — 263 points above Collier's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Felipe rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Collier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Felipe over Jake Collier. The model gives Felipe a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.