UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Vinicius Oliveira (4-0).

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 233 points above Oliveira's 1333. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Oliveira has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinicius Oliveira over Mario Bautista. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Amir Albazi (5-1). Albazi will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 261 points above Albazi's 1267. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horiguchi throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Horiguchi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Albazi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi over Amir Albazi. The model gives Horiguchi a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Rizvan Kuniev (0-1) taking on Jailton Almeida (8-2). Almeida will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Almeida is rated at 1428 — 266 points above Kuniev's 1161. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kuniev throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Kuniev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev. We're leaning Almeida here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9).

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 313 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oleksiejczuk's striker game against Barriault's all-rounder approach. Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Marc-Andre Barriault. We're leaning Oleksiejczuk here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Farid Basharat (5-0) taking on Jean Matsumoto (3-1). Basharat is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Basharat is rated at 1459 — 259 points above Matsumoto's 1200. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Basharat rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matsumoto throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Farid Basharat over Jean Matsumoto. We're leaning Basharat here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Julius Walker (1-1).

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 391 points above Walker's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julius Walker over Dustin Jacoby. We're leaning Walker here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniil Donchenko (1-0) taking on Alex Morono (13-9).

Donchenko is rated at 1165 — 296 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Donchenko throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Donchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Donchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniil Donchenko over Alex Morono. The model is firm on this one: Donchenko at 79%.

The Welterweight matchup features Nikolay Veretennikov (1-3) taking on Niko Price (8-9).

Veretennikov is rated at 1054 — 238 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niko Price over Nikolay Veretennikov. The model gives Price a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ketlen Souza (2-3) taking on Bruna Brasil (3-3). Brasil is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Souza is rated at 1116 — 157 points above Brasil's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brasil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Brasil has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Souza over Bruna Brasil. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Souza at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Javid Basharat (3-2) taking on Gianni Vazquez (0-0).

Basharat is rated at 1101 — 181 points above Vazquez's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Basharat throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Vazquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Javid Basharat over Gianni Vazquez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Basharat at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Wang Cong (3-1) taking on Eduarda Moura (3-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cong at 1242 versus Moura at 1142. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cong throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Moura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Cong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eduarda Moura over Wang Cong. The model gives Moura a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jakub Wiklacz (1-0) taking on Muin Gafurov (2-2). Wiklacz is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Wiklacz is rated at 1208 — 183 points above Gafurov's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gafurov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gafurov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gafurov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muin Gafurov over Jakub Wiklacz. The model gives Gafurov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Klaudia Sygula (1-1) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-7). Sygula will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sygula is rated at 1075 — 172 points above Cachoeira's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sygula throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sygula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sygula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Klaudia Sygula over Priscila Cachoeira. We're leaning Sygula here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.