UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Saturday, May 22, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Rob Font won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Font 54%46% Garbrandt
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Font)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Carla Esparza won by KO/TKO (R2)
Esparza 60%40% Xiaonan
LEANMarket: 47% (+12.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Xiaonan)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Xiaonan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Esparza)
HeavyweightMISS
Jared Vanderaa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vanderaa 43%57% Tafa
LEANMarket: 38% (+5.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tafa)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Norma Dumont won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dumont 64%36% Spencer
LEANMarket: 41% (+23.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -161(favors Spencer)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Dumont)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Dumont)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricardo Ramos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ramos 55%45% Algeo
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+7.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Algeo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Algeo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Ramos)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hermansson 56%44% Shahbazyan
LEANMarket: 59% (-3.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Shahbazyan)
HeavyweightHIT
Ben Rothwell won by Submission (R2)
Rothwell 73%27% Barnett
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +220(favors Rothwell)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Rothwell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Rothwell)
WelterweightMISS
Court McGee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McGee 36%64% Silva
LEANMarket: 51% (-14.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -418(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Silva)
FlyweightHIT
Bruno Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 52%48% Rodriguez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +157(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Silva)
FeatherweightMISS
Josh Culibao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Culibao 47%53% Nuerdanbieke
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Nuerdanbieke)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Culibao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nuerdanbieke)
FlyweightHIT
David Dvorak won by Submission (R1)
Dvorak 60%40% Ronderos
LEAN
→Elo gap: +150(favors Dvorak)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Dvorak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ronderos)
LightweightHIT
Damir Ismagulov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ismagulov 88%12% Alves
STRONGMarket: 82% (+6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +200(favors Ismagulov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Ismagulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Ismagulov)