UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vettori at 1280, Holland at 1257. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Kevin Holland. We're leaning Vettori here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Sodiq Yusuff (6-3).

Allen is rated at 1468 — 355 points above Yusuff's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arnold Allen over Sodiq Yusuff. The model gives Allen a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 42% implied while our model sees 57% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Julian Marquez (3-4) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1). Alvey will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Alvey carries a modest Elo edge (734 to 660), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Marquez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Marquez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Julian Marquez. The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Marquez, but our model sees only 36%. That 26-point gap favoring Alvey is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Nina Nunes (4-4).

Dern is rated at 1472 — 317 points above Nunes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nunes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Nina Nunes. We're leaning Dern here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dern at 44% implied while our model sees 67% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Mike Perry (7-7). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 428 points above Perry's 1066. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Perry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Mike Perry. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Rodriguez, but our model sees only 52%. That 7-point gap favoring Perry is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Solecki (5-3) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 182 points above Solecki's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Solecki throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Solecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Solecki over Jim Miller. The model is firm on this one: Solecki at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Solecki at 68% implied while our model sees 83% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Scott Holtzman (7-5).

Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 583 points above Holtzman's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holtzman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamrot the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Scott Holtzman. We're leaning Gamrot here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gamrot at 68% implied while our model sees 74% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Bahamondes is rated at 1386 — 397 points above Makdessi's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bahamondes has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Makdessi's striker game against Bahamondes's all-rounder approach. Makdessi brings a versatile approach, while Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bahamondes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over John Makdessi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bahamondes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Makdessi at 36% implied while our model sees 46% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jarjis Danho (0-1-1) taking on Yorgan De Castro (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Danho.

Danho is rated at 1064 — 259 points above Castro's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danho throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Danho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Castro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yorgan De Castro over Jarjis Danho. The model gives Castro a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jack Shore (6-2) taking on Hunter Azure (2-1).

Shore carries a modest Elo edge (1070 to 1017), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Azure throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Shore over Hunter Azure. We're leaning Shore here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Shore at 59% implied while our model sees 67% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Luis Saldana (2-1) taking on Jordan Griffin (1-3).

Saldana is rated at 1050 — 166 points above Griffin's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Saldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Griffin over Luis Saldana. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Griffin at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Saldana, but our model sees only 49%. That 8-point gap favoring Griffin is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Da Woon Jung (4-3-1) taking on William Knight (3-3). Jung is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jung at 979 versus Knight at 838. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Jung looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Knight is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jung the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da Woon Jung over William Knight. The model gives Jung a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Impa Kasanganay (2-1) taking on Sasha Palatnikov (1-1). Kasanganay will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kasanganay at 961 versus Palatnikov at 815. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palatnikov throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Palatnikov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kasanganay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Impa Kasanganay over Sasha Palatnikov. The model is firm on this one: Kasanganay at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Kasanganay at 72% implied while our model sees 79% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.