UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Saturday, March 6, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/15Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jan Blachowicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Blachowicz 23%77% Adesanya
STRONGMarket: 32% (-9.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -170(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Adesanya)
Women's FeatherweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by Submission (R1)
Nunes 88%12% Anderson
STRONGMarket: 87% (+1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +508(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Nunes)
BantamweightMISS
Aljamain Sterling won by DQ (R4)
Sterling 45%55% Yan
LEANMarket: 49% (-4.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -186(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Yan)
LightweightHIT
Islam Makhachev won by Submission (R3)
Makhachev 84%16% Dober
STRONGMarket: 77% (+7.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Makhachev)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Aleksandar Rakic won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rakic 71%29% Santos
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+11.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -52(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Rakic)
BantamweightMISS
Dominick Cruz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cruz 43%57% Kenney
LEANMarket: 45% (-2.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Cruz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Kenney)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Cruz)
BantamweightHIT
Kyler Phillips won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Phillips 57%43% Yadong
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -284(favors Yadong)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Phillips)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Phillips)
FlyweightHIT
Askar Askarov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Askarov 59%41% Benavidez
LEANMarket: 54% (+5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -163(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Benavidez)
FlyweightHIT
Kai Kara-France won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kara-France 51%49% Bontorin
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -70(favors Bontorin)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Bontorin)
FlyweightHIT
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 53%47% Espinosa
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+4.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Espinosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Elliott)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Kennedy Nzechukwu won by KO/TKO (R2)
Nzechukwu 33%67% Ulberg
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+2.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Ulberg)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ulberg)
WelterweightHIT
Sean Brady won by Submission (R3)
Brady 61%39% Matthews
LEANMarket: 65% (-4.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -73(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Brady)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Brady)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Amanda Lemos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lemos 42%58% Souza
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Lemos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Souza)
LightweightHIT
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Medic 71%29% Cruz
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+10.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Medic)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Cruz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cruz)
BantamweightMISS
Trevin Jones won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jones 22%78% Bautista
STRONGMarket: 33% (-11.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -187(favors Bautista)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Jones)