UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-7). Kattar will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 666 points above Kattar's 1231. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Kattar brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Holloway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kattar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Kattar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Calvin Kattar. The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 60% implied while our model sees 64% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Matt Brown (16-13).

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (1201 to 1165), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Condit's knockout artist game against Brown's all-rounder approach. Condit is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Condit over Matt Brown. The model gives Condit a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Condit, but our model sees only 56%. That 6-point gap favoring Brown is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jingliang at 1270 versus Ponzinibbio at 1177. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio over Li Jingliang. The model is firm on this one: Ponzinibbio at 82%. The market implies 25% for Jingliang, but our model sees only 18%. That 7-point gap favoring Ponzinibbio is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Alessio Di Chirico (4-6) taking on Joaquin Buckley (11-4).

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 940 points above Chirico's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Chirico's striker game against Buckley's all-rounder approach. Chirico brings a versatile approach, while Buckley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Alessio Di Chirico. We're leaning Buckley here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (6-4) taking on Dusko Todorovic (3-6). Todorovic is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Soriano is rated at 1288 — 416 points above Todorovic's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Soriano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Todorovic is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Soriano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Soriano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Todorovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dusko Todorovic over Punahele Soriano. The model gives Todorovic a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Wu Yanan (1-4). Edwards will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 617 points above Yanan's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanan throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Yanan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Wu Yanan. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Felipe (3-1) taking on Justin Tafa (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Felipe at 1057 versus Tafa at 938. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Felipe rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felipe throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tafa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Felipe over Justin Tafa. We're leaning Felipe here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Felipe at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramazan Emeev (5-2) taking on David Zawada (1-3).

Emeev carries a modest Elo edge (1047 to 991), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zawada throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Emeev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Emeev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramazan Emeev over David Zawada. We're leaning Emeev here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Emeev at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Vanessa Melo (0-3) taking on Sarah Moras (3-5). Moras is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Melo at 930 versus Moras at 808. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Melo throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Moras is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Melo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sarah Moras over Vanessa Melo. The model gives Moras a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Melo at 31% implied while our model sees 39% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Austin Lingo (2-2) taking on Jacob Kilburn (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lingo at 904 versus Kilburn at 811. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lingo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lingo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Lingo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Austin Lingo over Jacob Kilburn. We're leaning Lingo here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lingo at 66% implied while our model sees 70% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.