UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Geoff Neal (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Thompson at 1329 versus Neal at 1247. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Thompson brings a versatile approach, while Neal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Neal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Neal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Geoff Neal. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thompson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9).

Vera carries a modest Elo edge (1460 to 1420), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Aldo brings a versatile approach, while Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Vera the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Jose Aldo. The model gives Vera a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 57% for Aldo, but our model sees only 37%. That 20-point gap favoring Vera is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Khaos Williams (6-3). Williams will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Williams carries a modest Elo edge (1159 to 1113), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Williams brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pereira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 11.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Khaos Williams. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Marlon Moraes (5-5). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Font is rated at 1361 — 206 points above Moraes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over Marlon Moraes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Font at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Font at 42% implied while our model sees 54% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Greg Hardy (4-4). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 284 points above Hardy's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Greg Hardy over Marcin Tybura. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardy at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Alex Morono (13-9).

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 643 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Morono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Alex Morono. We're leaning Pettis here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Pannie Kianzad (5-5) taking on Sijara Eubanks (5-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kianzad.

Eubanks carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 943), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Kianzad's striker game against Eubanks's all-rounder approach. Kianzad brings a versatile approach, while Eubanks is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kianzad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pannie Kianzad over Sijara Eubanks. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kianzad at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kianzad at 41% implied while our model sees 54% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Deron Winn (2-2) taking on Antonio Arroyo (0-2). Arroyo is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Winn at 891 versus Arroyo at 761. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Winn throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Winn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Winn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Deron Winn over Antonio Arroyo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Winn at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Winn at 39% implied while our model sees 52% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Taila Santos (4-2) taking on Gillian Robertson (12-6). Santos will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Robertson at 1352 versus Santos at 1262. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Robertson has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taila Santos over Gillian Robertson. We're leaning Santos here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 49% implied while our model sees 66% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Tafon Nchukwi (2-3) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-6). Pickett is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nchukwi carries a modest Elo edge (716 to 673), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tafon Nchukwi over Jamie Pickett. The model is firm on this one: Nchukwi at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Nchukwi at 74% implied while our model sees 77% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Jimmy Flick (2-3) taking on Cody Durden (6-6-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Flick at 818, Durden at 846. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Flick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Durden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Durden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Flick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Durden over Jimmy Flick. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Durden at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Flick, but our model sees only 47%. That 11-point gap favoring Durden is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Christos Giagos (6-7) taking on Carlton Minus (0-1). Minus will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Giagos carries a modest Elo edge (940 to 870), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Minus throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Minus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christos Giagos over Carlton Minus. We're leaning Giagos here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.