UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Chan Sung Jung (7-4). Jung will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jung carries a modest Elo edge (1528 to 1490), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortega throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortega is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chan Sung Jung over Brian Ortega. We're leaning Jung here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Ortega, but our model sees only 32%. That 4-point gap favoring Jung is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Katlyn Cerminara (11-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 167 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Andrade looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cerminara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Andrade the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Katlyn Cerminara. We're leaning Andrade here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Modestas Bukauskas (7-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Crute at 1151, Bukauskas at 1168. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Bukauskas has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Crute's wrestler game against Bukauskas's knockout artist approach. Crute looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bukauskas is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bukauskas throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Crute has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmy Crute over Modestas Bukauskas. We're leaning Crute here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Claudio Silva (5-2). Krause is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 383 points above Silva's 1053. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Krause's knockout artist game against Silva's wrestler approach. Krause is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Krause has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Krause over Claudio Silva. The model gives Krause a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Thomas Almeida (5-4).

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 392 points above Almeida's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Jonathan Martinez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Almeida at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Guram Kutateladze (2-2) taking on Mateusz Gamrot (8-3).

Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 619 points above Kutateladze's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamrot throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Guram Kutateladze. We're leaning Gamrot here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Poliana Botelho (3-3). Botelho is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 493 points above Botelho's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Robertson's wrestler game against Botelho's striker approach. Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Botelho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Botelho throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Botelho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Poliana Botelho. The model is firm on this one: Robertson at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Robertson at 66% implied while our model sees 78% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on John Phillips (1-4).

Park is rated at 1235 — 443 points above Phillips's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Park's wrestler game against Phillips's striker approach. Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Phillips brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over John Phillips. The model is firm on this one: Park at 82%.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-6).

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 610 points above Mullarkey's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ziam's wrestler game against Mullarkey's striker approach. Ziam looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mullarkey brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullarkey throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fares Ziam over Jamie Mullarkey. The model gives Ziam a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ziam at 45% implied while our model sees 56% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Maxim Grishin (2-2) taking on Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2-3). Grishin is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Grishin is rated at 1009 — 233 points above Antigulov's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Antigulov throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Antigulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.4 more per 15 minutes. Grishin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maxim Grishin over Gadzhimurad Antigulov. The model is firm on this one: Grishin at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Grishin at 76% implied while our model sees 81% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-3) taking on Mark Striegl (0-1).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1181 — 294 points above Striegl's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Striegl has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Mark Striegl. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.