UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
Saturday, October 10, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sandhagen 62%38% Moraes
LEANMarket: 55% (+7.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -202(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Sandhagen)
FeatherweightHIT
Edson Barboza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barboza 62%38% Amirkhani
LEANMarket: 70% (-8.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Amirkhani)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tybura 64%36% Rothwell
LEANMarket: 41% (+23.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -181(favors Rothwell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Rothwell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Tybura)
MiddleweightHIT
Dricus Du Plessis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Plessis 68%32% Perez
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+8.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Plessis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Perez)
HeavyweightHIT
Tom Aspinall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aspinall 91%9% Baudot
STRONGMarket: 82% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +138(favors Aspinall)
→Striking volume advantage: +13.3(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Baudot)
FeatherweightMISS
Ilia Topuria won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Topuria 36%64% Zalal
LEANMarket: 37% (-0.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -206(favors Zalal)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Zalal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Zalal)
MiddleweightHIT
Tom Breese won by KO/TKO (R1)
Breese 65%35% Bhullar
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +148(favors Breese)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Breese)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bhullar)
HeavyweightMISS
Chris Daukaus won by KO/TKO (R1)
Daukaus 46%54% Nascimento
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Daukaus)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Nascimento)
MiddleweightMISS
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R2)
Buckley 20%80% Kasanganay
STRONGMarket: 31% (-11.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -141(favors Kasanganay)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Kasanganay)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kasanganay)
BantamweightMISS
Tony Kelley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kelley 35%65% AlQaisi
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -6(favors AlQaisi)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Kelley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors AlQaisi)
FeatherweightMISS
Giga Chikadze won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chikadze 47%53% Morales
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+4.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Chikadze)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Chikadze)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Chikadze)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Tracy Cortez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cortez 69%31% Egger
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+5.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +69(favors Cortez)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Cortez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Cortez)
FlyweightHIT
Tagir Ulanbekov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ulanbekov 55%45% Silva
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Silva)