UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Reinier de Ridder (4-0) taking on Robert Whittaker (17-6). Ridder is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Whittaker at 1528 versus Ridder at 1433. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Ridder rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ridder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Reinier de Ridder. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Whittaker at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Marcus McGhee (4-0).

Yan is rated at 1869 — 540 points above McGhee's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while McGhee has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGhee throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. McGhee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Marcus McGhee. The model gives Yan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Shara Magomedov (4-1) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9).

Magomedov is rated at 1254 — 299 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Magomedov's striker game against Barriault's all-rounder approach. Magomedov brings a versatile approach, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barriault is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shara Magomedov over Marc-Andre Barriault. We're leaning Magomedov here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Asu Almabayev (5-1) taking on Jose Ochoa (1-1). Ochoa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Almabayev is rated at 1349 — 320 points above Ochoa's 1028. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ochoa throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Almabayev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Ochoa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Asu Almabayev over Jose Ochoa. The model gives Almabayev a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Bogdan Guskov (4-1) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9).

Guskov carries a modest Elo edge (1480 to 1400), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Guskov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Guskov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Guskov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Krylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Bogdan Guskov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krylov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Said Nurmagomedov (7-3).

Mitchell is rated at 1355 — 173 points above Nurmagomedov's 1181. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitchell throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Said Nurmagomedov. The model gives Mitchell a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Carlos Leal (1-2). Leal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Salikhov at 1183, Leal at 1189. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leal throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Leal over Muslim Salikhov. The model gives Leal a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1). Blackshear is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Grant at 1200, Blackshear at 1216. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Blackshear has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Grant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Blackshear looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Blackshear the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Davey Grant. We're leaning Blackshear here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (6-3) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-5). Ribas is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ricci is rated at 1355 — 307 points above Ribas's 1048. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ricci throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Amanda Ribas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ricci at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Billy Elekana (2-1) taking on Ibo Aslan (2-2).

Elekana is rated at 1188 — 360 points above Aslan's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aslan throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elekana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Aslan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ibo Aslan over Billy Elekana. The model gives Aslan a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Steven Nguyen (0-1) taking on Mohammad Yahya (0-2).

Nguyen is rated at 970 — 279 points above Yahya's 692. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nguyen throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nguyen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Nguyen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mohammad Yahya over Steven Nguyen. The model gives Yahya a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Martin Buday (6-1) taking on Marcus Buchecha (0-1).

Buday is rated at 1183 — 221 points above Buchecha's 962. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buday throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Buday is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Buchecha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Buday over Marcus Buchecha. We're leaning Buday here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.