UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Saturday, September 19, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by KO/TKO (R5)
Covington 80%20% Woodley
STRONGMarket: 74% (+5.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Covington)
Welterweight
Cerrone 57%43% Price
LEANMarket: 43% (+13.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +238(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cerrone)
MiddleweightHIT
Khamzat Chimaev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Chimaev 88%12% Meerschaert
STRONGMarket: 78% (+9.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Chimaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Chimaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Chimaev)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Johnny Walker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Walker 44%56% Spann
LEANMarket: 54% (-9.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -139(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Spann)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R1)
Dern 62%38% Markos
LEANMarket: 60% (+2.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +103(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Dern)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Markos)
MiddleweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by Decision - Split (R3)
Holland 73%27% Stewart
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Holland)
FlyweightMISS
David Dvorak won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dvorak 49%51% Espinosa
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (-1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Dvorak)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Espinosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Espinosa)
FeatherweightMISS
Damon Jackson won by Submission (R3)
Jackson 15%85% Bektic
STRONGMarket: 24% (-9.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -323(favors Bektic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Bektic)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Mayra Bueno Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 73%27% Borella
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +249(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Borella)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Jessica-Rose Clark won by KO/TKO (R3)
Clark 48%52% Alpar
TOSS-UPMarket: 66% (-17.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -115(favors Alpar)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Clark)
FeatherweightMISS
Darrick Minner won by Submission (R1)
Minner 47%53% Laramie
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -57(favors Laramie)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Minner)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Minner)
BantamweightHIT
Randy Costa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Costa 60%40% Newson
LEANMarket: 46% (+14.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +52(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Newson)
BantamweightHIT
Andre Ewell won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ewell 80%20% Rivera
STRONGMarket: 67% (+12.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +88(favors Ewell)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Ewell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Rivera)
BantamweightHIT
Tyson Nam won by KO/TKO (R2)
Nam 55%45% Rivera
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +62(favors Nam)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Nam)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rivera)