UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Brunson at 1402 versus Shahbazyan at 1314. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Shahbazyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Shahbazyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Derek Brunson. The model is firm on this one: Shahbazyan at 80%. The market implies 24% for Brunson, but our model sees only 20%. That 4-point gap favoring Shahbazyan is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jennifer Maia (6-5) taking on Joanne Wood (8-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Maia at 1193 versus Wood at 1101. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanne Wood over Jennifer Maia. The model gives Wood a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Maia at 35% implied while our model sees 43% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Randy Brown (14-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 1381 versus Luque at 1250. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Randy Brown. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Luque, but our model sees only 61%. That 4-point gap favoring Brown is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2).

Green is rated at 1176 — 277 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lando Vannata over King Green. The model gives Vannata a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Frankie Saenz (5-4). Martinez is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 455 points above Saenz's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Martinez's all-rounder game against Saenz's striker approach. Martinez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Saenz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Saenz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Frankie Saenz. The model is firm on this one: Martinez at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Martinez at 69% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Nate Maness (4-2) taking on Johnny Munoz (2-3).

Maness is rated at 1176 — 296 points above Munoz's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maness's knockout artist game against Munoz's wrestler approach. Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Munoz over Nate Maness. The model gives Munoz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jamall Emmers (4-4) taking on Vince Cachero (0-1). Emmers is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Emmers is rated at 1177 — 367 points above Cachero's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmers throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Cachero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamall Emmers over Vince Cachero. The model is firm on this one: Emmers at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Emmers at 81% implied while our model sees 90% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Cody Durden (6-6-1).

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 451 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gutierrez brings a versatile approach, while Durden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Durden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gutierrez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Durden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Cody Durden. We're leaning Gutierrez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for Gutierrez, but our model sees only 67%. That 5-point gap favoring Durden is worth watching.