UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira lands on Wednesday, May 13, 2020 in Jacksonville, Florida, USA with 10 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira vs Anthony SmithLight Heavyweight | Anthony Smith | Lean | 63% |
| Ben Rothwell vs Ovince Saint PreuxHeavyweight | Ovince Saint Preux | Toss-up | 53% |
| Drew Dober vs Alexander HernandezLightweight | Alexander Hernandez | Lean | 62% |
| Ricky Simon vs Ray BorgBantamweight | Ricky Simon | Lean | 62% |
| Andrei Arlovski vs Philipe LinsHeavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Lean | 61% |
| Thiago Moises vs Michael JohnsonLightweight | Thiago Moises | Lean | 60% |
| Sijara Eubanks vs Sarah MorasWomen's Bantamweight | Sijara Eubanks | Toss-up | 50% |
| Omar Morales vs Gabriel BenitezLightweight | Gabriel Benitez | Lean | 57% |
| Brian Kelleher vs Hunter AzureFeatherweight | Hunter Azure | Lean | 57% |
| Chase Sherman vs Ike VillanuevaHeavyweight | Chase Sherman | Lean | 58% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Glover Teixeira vs Anthony Smith
The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).
Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 526 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Teixeira's knockout artist game against Smith's all-rounder approach. Teixeira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Smith over Glover Teixeira. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Ben Rothwell vs Ovince Saint Preux
The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12).
Rothwell is rated at 1080 — 163 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Preux looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Preux the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Rothwell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Ben Rothwell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Preux at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Drew Dober vs Alexander Hernandez
The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Alexander Hernandez (9-7).
Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 386 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 3 straight.
Stylistically this is Dober's all-rounder game against Hernandez's striker approach. Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hernandez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Drew Dober. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Ricky Simon vs Ray Borg
The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Ray Borg (7-4). Simon is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Simon carries a modest Elo edge (1223 to 1172), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Simon throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Simon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ricky Simon over Ray Borg. The model gives Simon a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Andrei Arlovski vs Philipe Lins
The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Philipe Lins (3-2).
Lins is rated at 1256 — 398 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lins has won 3 straight.
Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Lins's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Philipe Lins. The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Thiago Moises vs Michael Johnson
The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-6) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1245 versus Moises at 1124. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Moises's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Moises over Michael Johnson. The model gives Moises a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Sijara Eubanks vs Sarah Moras
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sijara Eubanks (5-4) taking on Sarah Moras (3-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moras.
Eubanks is rated at 974 — 166 points above Moras's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sijara Eubanks over Sarah Moras. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Eubanks at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Omar Morales vs Gabriel Benitez
The Lightweight matchup features Omar Morales (3-3) taking on Gabriel Benitez (7-7). Morales is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morales at 826, Benitez at 856. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Morales brings a versatile approach, while Benitez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Benitez the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Benitez throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gabriel Benitez over Omar Morales. The model gives Benitez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Brian Kelleher vs Hunter Azure
The Featherweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-8) taking on Hunter Azure (2-1). Azure is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Azure is rated at 1017 — 252 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Azure has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Hunter Azure over Brian Kelleher. The model gives Azure a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Chase Sherman vs Ike Villanueva
The Heavyweight matchup features Chase Sherman (4-10) taking on Ike Villanueva (1-4). Sherman is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Sherman is rated at 822 — 170 points above Villanueva's 653. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Villanueva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Villanueva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chase Sherman over Ike Villanueva. The model gives Sherman a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.