UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Saturday, June 28, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Ilia Topuria won by KO/TKO (R1)
Topuria 71%29% Oliveira
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +188(favors Topuria)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Topuria)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Topuria)
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by Submission (R3)
Pantoja 55%45% Kara-France
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +265(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Pantoja)
FlyweightMISS
Joshua Van won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Van 49%51% Royval
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -196(favors Royval)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Van)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Van)
LightweightMISS
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dariush 37%63% Moicano
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -195(favors Moicano)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Dariush)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Dariush)
BantamweightMISS
Payton Talbott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Talbott 44%56% Lima
LEAN
→Elo gap: -141(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Talbott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Lima)
MiddleweightHIT
Gregory Rodrigues won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rodrigues 53%47% Hermansson
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Rodrigues)
FeatherweightHIT
Jose Delgado won by KO/TKO (R1)
Delgado 54%46% Amil
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -235(favors Amil)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Amil)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Amil)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Tracy Cortez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cortez 61%39% Araujo
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Araujo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Cortez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cortez)
LightweightHIT
Terrance McKinney won by Submission (R1)
McKinney 73%27% Borshchev
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors McKinney)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors McKinney)
WelterweightHIT
Jacobe Smith won by Submission (R2)
Smith 52%48% Price
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +71(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Price)
HeavyweightHIT
Jhonata Diniz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diniz 68%32% Hines
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +132(favors Diniz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Diniz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hines)