UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7).

Reyes is rated at 1529 — 469 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Reyes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Weidman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Chris Weidman. We're leaning Reyes here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Reyes at 63% implied while our model sees 70% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 618 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Stephens's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Jeremy Stephens. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Greg Hardy (4-4) taking on Ben Sosoli (0-0). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hardy at 958 versus Sosoli at 866. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 7.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sosoli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sosoli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Greg Hardy over Ben Sosoli. The model is firm on this one: Hardy at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Hardy at 77% implied while our model sees 92% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Jonathan Pearce (5-3).

Lauzon carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 996), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Lauzon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearce looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pearce the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Pearce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Joe Lauzon. The model gives Pearce a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Gillian Robertson (12-6).

Barber is rated at 1543 — 192 points above Robertson's 1352. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one, while Robertson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Barber's striker game against Robertson's wrestler approach. Barber brings a versatile approach, while Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barber throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Barber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maycee Barber over Gillian Robertson. We're leaning Barber here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barber at 58% implied while our model sees 66% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Darren Stewart (5-6) taking on Deron Winn (2-2). Stewart is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Stewart carries a modest Elo edge (940 to 891), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Winn throws significantly more leather — a 8.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Stewart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Stewart over Deron Winn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stewart at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Stewart at 48% implied while our model sees 54% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Rosa (5-7) taking on Manny Bermudez (3-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bermudez at 959 versus Rosa at 817. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manny Bermudez over Charles Rosa. We're leaning Bermudez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 38% for Rosa, but our model sees only 33%. That 4-point gap favoring Bermudez is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Molly McCann (7-6) taking on Diana Belbita (2-5). Belbita is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: McCann at 834 versus Belbita at 739. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is McCann's all-rounder game against Belbita's striker approach. McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Belbita brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Belbita has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Molly McCann over Diana Belbita. The model is firm on this one: McCann at 88%. Notably, the betting market has McCann at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Kyle Bochniak (2-4). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Woodson is rated at 1235 — 371 points above Bochniak's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Woodson's all-rounder game against Bochniak's striker approach. Woodson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bochniak brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bochniak throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bochniak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Kyle Bochniak. The model gives Woodson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Woodson at 50% implied while our model sees 58% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Randy Costa (2-3) taking on Boston Salmon (0-1). Costa will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Costa carries a modest Elo edge (801 to 724), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 7.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Salmon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Costa over Boston Salmon. The model gives Costa a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Costa at 41% implied while our model sees 63% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Brady (8-1) taking on Court McGee (11-12). McGee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brady is rated at 1658 — 621 points above McGee's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brady rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brady the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Brady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Sean Brady. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGee at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Brady, but our model sees only 46%. That 17-point gap favoring McGee is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Allen is rated at 1696 — 440 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Brendan Allen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holland at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 39% implied while our model sees 48% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tanner Boser (4-5) taking on Daniel Spitz (1-2). Spitz is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Boser at 984 versus Spitz at 858. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spitz throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Spitz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Boser has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tanner Boser over Daniel Spitz. We're leaning Boser here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Boser at 57% implied while our model sees 66% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.