UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 379 points above Poirier's 1681. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Poirier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Dustin Poirier. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 78% implied while our model sees 84% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Felder is rated at 1363 — 221 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Felder's all-rounder game against Barboza's striker approach. Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barboza brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edson Barboza over Paul Felder. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barboza at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Davi Ramos (4-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Makhachev.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1050 points above Ramos's 1160. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Davi Ramos. The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5). Blaydes will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 616 points above Abdurakhimov's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blaydes's striker game against Abdurakhimov's all-rounder approach. Blaydes brings a versatile approach, while Abdurakhimov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Shamil Abdurakhimov. The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Mairbek Taisumov (7-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Taisumov at 1362 versus Ferreira at 1213. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Taisumov has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's all-rounder game against Taisumov's striker approach. Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Taisumov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Taisumov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Taisumov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Ferreira over Mairbek Taisumov. The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8). Lee will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Wood is rated at 1101 — 238 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrea Lee over Joanne Wood. The model is firm on this one: Lee at 81%. The market implies 32% for Wood, but our model sees only 19%. That 13-point gap favoring Lee is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1) taking on Lerone Murphy (8-0-1). Murphy will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 522 points above Tukhugov's 1132. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy has won 8 straight.

Stylistically this is Tukhugov's striker game against Murphy's all-rounder approach. Tukhugov brings a versatile approach, while Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tukhugov throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tukhugov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov over Lerone Murphy. The model gives Tukhugov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 73% for Tukhugov, but our model sees only 64%. That 9-point gap favoring Murphy is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sarah Moras (3-5) taking on Liana Jojua (1-2). Moras is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Moras carries a modest Elo edge (808 to 777), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moras throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moras is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Jojua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liana Jojua over Sarah Moras. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jojua at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Moras at 41% implied while our model sees 47% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Ottman Azaitar (2-2) taking on Teemu Packalen (1-2). Packalen is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Azaitar at 852, Packalen at 844. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Packalen throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Packalen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Azaitar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ottman Azaitar over Teemu Packalen. The model gives Azaitar a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Takashi Sato (2-4).

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 892 points above Sato's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muhammad's all-rounder game against Sato's striker approach. Muhammad is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sato brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sato throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Takashi Sato. The model is firm on this one: Muhammad at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Nordine Taleb (7-4). Taleb is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Salikhov is rated at 1183 — 207 points above Taleb's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taleb throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Muslim Salikhov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taleb at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Zak Cummings (9-4).

Cummings carries a modest Elo edge (1357 to 1303), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Akhmedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummings looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cummings the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akhmedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Akhmedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Zak Cummings. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Akhmedov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Don Madge (1-0) taking on Fares Ziam (7-2). Ziam will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 374 points above Madge's 1183. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam has won 5 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madge throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ziam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Don Madge over Fares Ziam. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Madge at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Madge, but our model sees only 53%. That 10-point gap favoring Ziam is worth watching.