UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Saturday, July 6, 2019·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jon Jones won by Decision - Split (R5)
Jones 92%8% Santos
STRONGMarket: 84% (+8.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +430(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Santos)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nunes 92%8% Holm
STRONGMarket: 78% (+14.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +461(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Nunes)
WelterweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Masvidal 60%40% Askren
LEANMarket: 34% (+25.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +440(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Masvidal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Askren)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jan Blachowicz won by KO/TKO (R2)
Blachowicz 31%69% Rockhold
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -258(favors Rockhold)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Rockhold)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Blachowicz)
WelterweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chiesa 85%15% Sanchez
STRONGMarket: 77% (+7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Chiesa)
FeatherweightHIT
Arnold Allen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Allen 83%17% Melendez
STRONGMarket: 74% (+8.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +333(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Melendez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Allen)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by Submission (R2)
Vera 86%14% Hernandez
STRONGMarket: 80% (+6.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +300(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Vera)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Claudia Gadelha won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gadelha 73%27% Markos
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Gadelha)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Gadelha)
BantamweightHIT
Song Yadong won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yadong 70%30% Perez
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Yadong)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Yadong)
MiddleweightHIT
Edmen Shahbazyan won by Submission (R1)
Shahbazyan 92%8% Marshman
STRONGMarket: 84% (+7.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +174(favors Shahbazyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Marshman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.7(favors Shahbazyan)
WelterweightMISS
Chance Rencountre won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rencountre 16%84% Naurdiev
STRONGMarket: 17% (-0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -66(favors Naurdiev)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Naurdiev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Rencountre)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Julia Avila won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Avila 67%33% Kianzad
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-2.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Avila)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kianzad)