UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Saturday, April 20, 2019·Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R1)
Overeem 72%28% Oleinik
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+2.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Oleinik)
LightweightHIT
Islam Makhachev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Makhachev 79%21% Tsarukyan
STRONGMarket: 74% (+5.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +461(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Makhachev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Makhachev)
HeavyweightHIT
Sergei Pavlovich won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pavlovich 56%44% Golm
LEAN
→Elo gap: +101(favors Pavlovich)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Golm)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Golm)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Roxanne Modafferi won by Decision - Split (R3)
Modafferi 38%62% Shevchenko
LEANMarket: 27% (+11.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Shevchenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Shevchenko)
MiddleweightHIT
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jotko 69%31% Amedovski
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +105(favors Jotko)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Jotko)
FeatherweightMISS
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Evloev 45%55% Choi
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Choi)
WelterweightMISS
Sultan Aliev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aliev 42%58% Nakamura
LEANMarket: 52% (-10.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -129(favors Nakamura)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Nakamura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Nakamura)
LightweightHIT
Alexander Yakovlev won by Submission (R2)
Yakovlev 50%50% Silva
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +30(favors Yakovlev)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Yakovlev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Yakovlev)
HeavyweightMISS
Shamil Abdurakhimov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Abdurakhimov 39%61% Tybura
LEANMarket: 44% (-4.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +2(favors Abdurakhimov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Tybura)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Michal Oleksiejczuk won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleksiejczuk 71%29% Antigulov
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+4.8% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.7(favors Antigulov)
LightweightMISS
Magomed Mustafaev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mustafaev 45%55% Fiziev
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (-4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +183(favors Mustafaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Mustafaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Fiziev)